Top MLB Bet for May 17th

In a day with some interesting MLB plays to choose from, one stands out above the rest. Today’s play of the day features two World Series favorites. In what promises to be an exciting affair the top team in the majors in terms of record is taking on the reigning champions. There is little to differentiate these two powerhouses except for the starting pitchers they will be sending to the mound. There is value on both sides, but much like the early action on this contest has suggested, the road team is the better play.

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Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox

Team	Record	Power Ranking	Runs Scored	Differential
Houston Astros	29-15	3	5.56	+87
Boston Red Sox	23-20	4	5.34	+27

 

Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP
Gerrit Cole	4-4	3.88	1.10
Rick Porcello	3-3	5.15	1.47

 
Form
The Houston Astros are set to face off against the Boston Red Sox in a battle of AL heavyweights. Houston has been on a roll this season and currently sits atop the majors with 29 wins and a .659 winning percentage. They have the best run differential in baseball, and are third in the league in team ERA. The Astros have won an impressive 12 of their last 13 games. The Astros hold a strong 13-11 record on the road. They are one of only five American League teams with a winning road record.

After a horrible start to the season, Boston has turned on the jets. They have won 12 of their last 15, and will be looking to prove their recent streak was not due to opponents faced. The Red Sox now have a positive run differential, and have scored 5.34 runs per game. The Red Sox are a solid 12-8 at home. The Astros have been the team in better form this season, and still hold a slight edge in a road contest.

The Houston Astros will be sending the impressive Gerrit Cole to the mound. The Red Sox will be countering with the struggling Rick Porcello. Gerrit Cole holds a solid 4-4 record through nine starts. He has struck out an incredible 88 batters through 55.2 innings. He boasts a rock solid 3.88 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. His ERA suggests some control issues, and that is exactly what we see from his game log. He has walked three batters in all but one of his losses. Cole has allowed three runs or less in all but two of his starts. He holds a 2-3 record with a 4.03 ERA on the road. His 1.09 WHIP highlights the fact that he has been strong on the road outside of a start in Texas where he gave up eight runs in 4.1 innings.

Rick Porcello has struggled this season. He holds a 3-3 record through eight starts, but is saddled with a 5.15 ERA and an unsightly 1.47 WHIP.  He has simply been allowing too many base runners, something that has become an issue for a pitcher who has allowed eight home runs in eight games. Porcello has been much more impressive at home where he holds a solid 3.65 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, and a 3-1 record in four starts. With Cole on the mound the Astros hold the edge in the pitcher form arena.

Trends
There are sure to be some interesting trends in a battle of two of the best teams in the league. The Astros have won 20 of their last 28 games following an off day. They hold a 38-15 record in their last 53 contests following a win. They are undefeated in their last five contests against a starting pitcher with a WHIP over 1.30. The Astros have won 35 of their last 51 Friday games, and 68 of their last 100 road games. They are 37-18 in their last 55 games against a right-handed starting pitcher. However, they have lost five of their last six contests against teams with a winning record.

The Red Sox have been impressive as of late, and are undefeated in their last six games against the AL West. They have won their last four Friday games, as well as their last four home games against a team with a winning road record. The Red Sox have won five of their last six games against a starter with a WHIP lower than 1.15. And they have won 55 of their last 82 home games against a right-handed starter. They have, however, lost 10 of their last 14 series openers. The Astros and Red Sox seem to be relatively even in the team trends department.

The Astros have been on a roll when Gerrit Cole takes the mound. They have won five of his last six series openers, and are 10-3 in his last 13 starts on five days rest. The Astros have won five of his last seven starts. And from the obscure trends department they have won 30 of his last 41 starts on grass.

Despite an ugly 5.15 ERA, the Red Sox have been on fire in Rick Porcello’s recent starts. They have his last five starts, and have won five of his last six home starts against teams with a winning record. They have won five of his last six starts against the AL West. The Red Sox have won an impressive 37 of his last 55 home starts. In an interesting twist, they have lost four of his last five Friday starts. These two teams seem to be deadlocked in both the team and pitching trends departments.

Line
In a battle of two of the best in the league, you often have to split hairs to discern which team may come out on top. In most cases siding with the home team in a contest like this is the smart play. However the strength of the starting pitching options and recent team form also play a correlative factor. The Astros are sending the superior pitcher to the mound, and thus currently sit at a -142 line. The +122 line on the Red Sox is very appealing, especially after their recent turnaround and since they are playing at home. However, the edge the Astros hold in both the team form and pitcher form departments make them look like the smarter play. The sharps appear to agree, as the line in this contest has already jumped from +115 to +125.

Pick: Houston Astros

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 17-12-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.