Top MLB Bet for May 20th

Today’s MLB action provides little in the way of edge-based value. The top two plays both sit at over -180, and with only 10 games on the schedule, there is little to choose from. The line in this contest should arguably be much higher. As such, this contest is our top play of the day. This game features two teams at opposing sides of our most recent power rankings. Despite the names involved, the starting pitching battle looks pretty even. There is often value in finding road winners and today’s play is no different. Let’s take a look at why a road favorite with over 80 cents juice is still considered a good value.

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New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles

Team	Record	Power Ranking	Runs Scored	Differential
New York Yankees	28-17	1	5.02	+48
Baltimore Orioles	15-35	29	3.82	-95

 

Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP
J.A. Happ	3-3	4.44	1.19
Andrew Cashner	4-2	4.10	1.32

 
Form
The New York Yankees are set to square off against the Baltimore Orioles in a battle of AL East foes. This is truly a battle between the best and the worst the American League has to offer. The Yankees have secured first place in the AL East and will only get better when they round back into full health. They hold a 28-17 record that includes a stellar 12-4 mark against AL East opponents. They have scored a top-tier 5.02 runs per game.  The Yankees hold a healthy +48 run differential after 45 games. They have been on a roll recently winning nine of their last 12 contests.

The Baltimore Orioles sit at the complete opposite end of the spectrum. They are saddled with an atrocious 15-31 record. They are one of only eight teams in the majors that have scored less than four runs per game. Their -95 run differential is the worst in the league. Baltimore has lost eight of their last nine games, and there seems to be no end in sight. The Orioles have dropped five straight games to the Yankees and may be facing a third straight series sweep. The Yankees have been the team in better form.

New York will have J.A. Happ toe the rubber. Baltimore will be countering with Andrew Cashner. Happ holds a somewhat disappointing 3-3 record through nine games. He has a poor 4.44 ERA but holds a solid 1.19 WHIP. Happ has been much better on the road this season. He holds a sparkling 1.96 ERA and 0.93 WHIP and has allowed just four runs in 18.1 innings. Happ has somehow found a way to struggle against one of the worst offenses in the league. He is 1-1 through three starts against the Orioles this season. His 5.93 ERA and 1.32 WHIP against them is truly concerning.

Andrew Cashner holds a solid 4-2 record this season. His 4.10 ERA and 1.32 WHIP are more indicative of his actual play. Cashner has shown some flashes but struggles with consistency. He has been on a roll at home this season where he holds a 2-0 record through three games. He boasts a sparkling 2.45 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in his home contests. This would give him a good chance on paper against most opponents. However, Cashner has already faced the Yankees twice this season and has a disastrous 7.20 ERA and 1.60 WHIP through two starts. He has yet to face them at home, so there is some hope for those looking for a dart play. New York has the edge in pitcher form, but it is closer than expected.

Edge: New York Yankees

Trends
We will keep the trends analysis short today as you likely do not need any convincing regarding which team holds the edge in this department. Instead, we will focus on pitcher trends. J.A. Happ has been a beacon of stability for the Yankees in his recent starts. They are undefeated in his last four road starts against teams with a losing record. They are 5-2 in his last seven series openers. And finally, they have won eight of his last 11 starts against the AL East. The Orioles have lost eight of Andrew Cashner’s last 10 home starts against teams with winning records. They have lost two of his last seven series openers. Finally, highlighting his consistency issues, they have lost four of his last five outings following a quality start.

Edge: New York Yankees

Line
Just looking at the pitchers, one may think this contest could be closer than the -185 line suggests. While Cashner has had some solid outings this year, they have not come against the Yankees. He has given up a total of eight runs in just 10 innings pitched against them this season. The Orioles have lost four of his last five starts against the Yankees. Being on the road has not meant much when it comes to facing Baltimore, as the Pinstripes have won 13 of their last 16 meetings at Camden Yards. This contest could turn into a pitchers duel in the early innings which gives the under some appeal. With -185 odds on Yankees moneyline you will only get a partial unit return, so it is suggested that your parlay this play with some NBA or NHL action.

Pick: New York Yankees

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 18-12-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.