Top MLB Bet for May 22nd

On a day where the top play is listed as high as -350, bettors are forced to search elsewhere for value. There are a few intriguing matchups, but none more so than a battle of two pitchers who were the favorites the NL Cy Young award coming into the season. Battles of two of the very best the majors have to offer often turn into pitching duels in the early innings and come down who has the stronger bullpen. In contests like these the home team often gets labeled the favorite, and this instance is no different. When splitting hairs between opposing starting pitching options, going with the home team when they have a winning home record, as opposed to a road team with a losing road record, is often the smart play.

Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets

Team	Record	Power Ranking	Runs Scored	Differential
Washington Nationals	19-29	12	4.45	-33
New York Mets	22-25	13	4.46	-20

 

Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP
Max Scherzer	2-5	3.72	1.19
Jacob deGrom	3-5	3.98	1.17

Form
In a battle of NL East rivals, the Washington Nationals are set to do battle with the New York Mets. The Nationals have been a bitter disappointment this season and currently sit 10 games under .500 at 19-29. They hold an equally poor 9-15 record on the road. The Nationals have lost three straight games, including the first two games of this series against the Mets. The Nationals have scored a healthy 4.45 runs per game, but due to uncharacteristically inconsistent pitching they boast a -33 run differential.

Like the Nationals, the Mets have been a disappointment this season. They have scored 4.46 runs per game, but still sport a negative run differential. They have a more respectable record of 22-25, that includes an 11-8 mark at home. The Mets have been on a bit of a slide recently but have won the first two games of the series. The Mets hold the edge in the team form department.

Outside of the strikeout department, Max Scherzer has been decidedly average this season. He holds a 2-5 record through 10 starts and has given up two or more runs in all but two of his starts this season. Scherzer has looked like himself in the majority of his home starts, but the road is where he has struggled. Through four road starts he holds a 4.74 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. He has faced the Mets twice this season so we have some relevant data to analyze. While he holds a solid 3.86/0.93 split overall, those numbers balloon to 5.86/1.26 at Citi Field. The Nationals have lost six of his last seven starts.

Jacob deGrom has also been surprisingly average this season. He holds a 3-5 record through nine starts. He holds a solid 3.98 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, but much like Max, numbers like these are disappointing for a Cy Young favorite. Jacob deGrom has been perplexing this season. deGrom has allowed five or more runs on three occasions already this season, a feat he allowed zero times in 2018. He has had poor starts against the Minnesota Twins and the Milwaukee Brewers, but those can be expected. However, he also got lit up for six runs by the talent-deficient Miami Marlins.

deGrom has actually been better on the road this season, so a home start does him no perceptible favors. He has faced the Nationals only once this season. deGrom allowed zero runs in six innings and stuck out 10. The Mets hold the slight edge due to Scherzer pitching on the road.

Edge: New York Mets

Trends
In a battle of two teams with losing records, the team trends are not very kind. Washington has dropped eight of their last 10 road games. They have lost nine of their last 12 games against a right-handed starting pitcher. The combination has not produced any better results as they are 1-7 in their last eight road games against a right-handed starter. The Nationals have lost four of their last five road games against teams with a losing record. Finally, they have lost eight of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning home record.

Despite the fact that the Nationals have lost six of his last seven starts, Max Scherzer gives the Nationals a good chance to win every time he takes the mound. The Nationals have won 19 of his last 26 road starts against teams with losing records. They have won 39 of his last 55 starts against the NL East. Finally, they have won 35 of his last 52 game threes of a series.

The Mets are undefeated in their last four home games against a right-handed starter. They are also undefeated in their last four home games against teams with a road record below .400. However, that is where the good team trends end. The Mets have lost two of their last five against the NL East and four of their last five games against a right-handed starting pitcher. They have lost 10 of their last 11 game threes of a series. They are winless in their last four games against teams with a winning percentage below .400, as well as in their last five Wednesday games.

Despite being on a slide in his recent starts, the Mets have a good chance to win every time Jacob deGrom toes the rubber. The Mets have won four of his last five Wednesday starts and five of his last seven starts against the NL East. Finally, the Mets have won 10 of his last 13 starts against the Washington Nationals.

Edge: New York Mets

Line
-115 on Jacob deGrom seems fair for a home start against fellow ace Max Scherzer. Normally, any time one of these pitchers takes the mound their team is a heavy favorite. When they face each other you often get great odds due to the unpredictability of the matchup. The Nationals are an impressive 6-0 in Scherzer’s last five road starts against the New York Mets. The line you get on the Nationals will depend on your book. A few books currently have them at -105, but other books have them as high as +102 (+100 at DraftKings and FanDuel). The Nationals seem to be a solid play, but Scherzer’s poor start against the Mets at Citi Field gives some reason for pause.

The Mets have been the stronger team this season. They are the home team in this battle and hold a winning record in the confines of their own stadium. They are an impressive 16-13 against the NL East and have their ace on the mound. This is as much of a toss-up play as there ever has been, but the Mets seem to have the edge based on form and trends.

Pick: New York Mets

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 19-12-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.