Top MLB Bet for May 27th

As is often the case, the Monday MLB slate is an uninspiring one from a betting perspective. There are a lot of games to choose from, but in terms of edge based values, all of the top plays are above -200. Today’s top play is an intriguing interleague matchup between two teams in the top 10 of our most recent power rankings. Both teams have already hit the 30-win mark and have scored more than five runs per game. It looks like it could start out as a pitching duel before the fireworks start in the fourth or fifth inning. Get your popcorn ready. 

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Chicago Cubs vs. Houston Astros

Team	Record	Power Ranking	Runs Scored	Differential
Chicago Cubs	30-21	8	5.39	+54
Houston Astros	35-19	3	5.17	+89

 

Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP
Cole Hamels	4-0	3.38	1.26
Gerrit Cole	4-5	4.11	1.08

 
Form
In a battle of division leaders, the Chicago Cubs are set to do battle with the Houston Astros. The Cubs have been on a roll this season. They sit atop the NL Central with a 30-21 record, and look like they will be making the playoffs. They are third in the league in runs scored per game, and have a healthy +54 run differential. The Cubs have lost three of their last four games, and seem to struggle against good pitching. Dominant at home, they hold a middling 12-11 mark on the road. Their mark against teams above .500 is not much better. They hold a 17-14 record against such teams. The Cubs are one of only three teams in the top 10 in both runs scored and team ERA.

The Houston Astros have been excellent this season. They are in first place in the AL Central with a 35-19 record. They have won 14 of their last 18, and have been elite on both sides of the ball. The Astros are second in the league in team ERA, and ninth in runs scored per game. This has led them to the second best run differential in the league. They are the only team in the majors to reach 20 home wins. Houston has proven their mettle by way of a 23-16 record against teams over .500.

The Chicago Cubs will be sending the resurgent Cole Hamels to toe the rubber. The Astros will be countering with the exciting Gerrit Cole. Hamels has been a pleasant surprise this season. He holds a stunning 4-0 record, and has managed to keep his ERA to 3.38. Hamels has picked up where he left off last season. His ERA and WHIP have climbed, but his return to the National League has been kind to him. The Cubs have won all but two of Cole Hamels’ starts this season. Hamels has been much better at home. He holds a 3.49 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with a .252 batting average against on the road. With that said, three of his four wins have come on the road so far.

Gerrit Cole has had an up and down season. Despite a sparkling 1.08 WHIP, he sits with a 4-5 record. He saw his 3.56 ERA jump to 4.11 after getting blown up by the lowly Chicago White Sox. While Cole has been more dominant on the road, he has been just as good at home. His 4.60 ERA looks unsightly after the aforementioned start, but his 1.02 WHIP is more indicative of his play in his other starts.

Cole has really found his footing in the American League, and will no doubt be excited to square off against some old National League Central foes. Hamels has been more impressive this season in a bubble, but these two pitchers are pretty even when context is taken into account. A 1.26 WHIP that jumps to 1.31 on the road is a cause for concern when travelling to take on one of the American League’s top teams.

Edge: Houston Astros

Trends
Since we are discussing two of the best teams in the majors we will stick to interleague trends and pitching trends. The Cubs have won 12 of their last 16 against the AL West. They have won five of their last seven interleague road games, and are 7-3 in their last 10 interleague road games against teams with a winning record. However, they have won only two of their last eight interleague road games against a right-handed starting pitcher. Finally, they have lost four of their last five road games against teams with a home winning percentage over .600. The Astros have won five of their last six interleague games against a left-handed starting pitcher. They have won seven of their last nine interleague home games. Finally, they have won 59 of their last 87 interleague games overall. The Astros hold the edge in the team trends department.

The Cubs are undefeated in Cole Hamels’ last four road starts, as well as his last six starts against teams with a winning record. They are 8-1 in his last nine starts overall. The Astros have won six of Cole’s last seven series openers. They have won five of his last six interleague starts. Finally, they are 16-5 in his last 21 home starts. The pitching trends are even, but the Astros hold the trends edge due to team trends.  

Edge: Houston Astros

Line
The line in this contest has already moved quite a bit. It opened at -179 and has moved to -189 in some places, and as high as -200 at PointsBet. The movement tells us all we need to know about where the sharps and early bettors feel the value lies in this contest. On paper, this matchup is much more even than the line suggests. Cole Hamels has been strong this season, and the Cubs have won all but two of his starts. The Cubs are among the league leaders in both runs scored and team ERA but are facing one of the three other teams that can make the same claim.

The Astros have been much better against teams above .500 and should be favorites in every contest of this series. Hamels gives the Cubs a puncher’s chance, but Cole and the Astros is the play due to team form and trends. The Astros are the superior team, are playing at home, and hold a better record despite playing in the American League. The Astros are the pick for a one unit play, or a possible parlay with a team like the Reds in the first game, or Mad Max and the Nationals against the Marlins.

Pick: Houston Astros

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 20-13-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.