Top MLB Bet for May 29th

There is no shortage of intriguing games to choose from on an action-packed final Wednesday in May. However, most of the top plays come coupled with odds to shy away from. Thus with more than a few options to choose from, looking for the top potential value takes priority. Our top play features a home team that has won the first two games of this series, but is sending a true wildcard to the mound. His inconsistency throughout his career gives the visiting team the edge in this contest.

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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies

Team	Record	Power Ranking	Runs Scored	Differential
Arizona Diamondbacks	28-27	13	5.18	+44
Colorado Rockies	26-27	18	5.26	-1

 

Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP
Robbie Ray	4-1	3.26	1.34
Jeff Hoffman	0-1	5.10	1.50

 
Form
In a matchup of the NL West foes, the Arizona Diamondbacks are set to do battle with the Colorado Rockies. The Diamondbacks have had a surprisingly strong season through 55 games. They hold a 28-27 record and have a healthy +44 run differential. They are one of only 10 teams in the majors scoring more than five runs per game. Arizona has been solid in terms of team ERA sitting at 4.15 to this point in the season. The Diamondbacks have been better on the road than at home, and hold an impressive 17-14 road record. Arizona was on a three-game winning streak before dropping the opening two games of this series.

The Colorado Rockies have been a mixed bag this season. They are sitting near .500 at 26-27, but are one of only four teams in the league giving up more than five runs per game. The Rockies have provided tremendous run support at home where they lead the majors with a 6.04 mark. However they have given up a league worst 6.36 runs per game at Coors Field. Blessed with an easy patch of their schedule, Colorado has been on a roll winning six of their last eight games. The Rockies won the first two games of this series, and now hold a solid 13-12 home record.

The Arizona Diamondbacks will be sending the electric, but command deficient, Robbie Ray to the mound. The Colorado Rockies will be countering with the seemingly overmatched Jeff Hoffman. Robbie Ray holds a 4-1 record through 11 starts, and has allowed two runs or less in all but three of his starts. He is 2-1 through seven road starts, and holds a 3.23 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Ray has been impressive this season, but remains a pitcher who allows too many men on base. He has been pitching himself out of jams, but constantly plays with fire.

Jeff Hoffman is 0-1 through just two starts. He has a grotesque 5.10 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Hoffman has even struggled at Triple-A this year, and will be in for a tough test against the hot-hitting Diamondbacks. Hoffman has given up nine runs in 10 innings that have all come at home. This will be his first start against a team with a winning record. The D’Backs hold the overall edge based on team and pitcher form.

Edge: Arizona Diamondbacks

Trends
There are some intriguing trends in this matchup. The Diamondbacks have been struggling recently and have lost seven of their last 10 against the NL West. They have lost five of their last seven road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Finally, they have lost five of their last six games following a loss in their previous outing. On the flip side of things, the Diamondbacks have won five of their last six Wednesday games. They have also won 10 of their last 14 road games against teams with a winning home record.

The Rockies have been on a roll recently. They have won five of their last six against the NL West, and hold the same mark in their last six Wednesday games. They have won five of their last six home games against teams with winning road records. The Rockies have won four of their last five home games against a left-handed starting pitcher. The Rockies hold the edge in the team trend department.

The Diamondbacks have been rolling in their recent starts when Robbie Ray takes the mound. They have won four of his last five road starts, and have won all four of his last four starts on four days of rest. They have won 13 of his last 18 road starts against teams with a losing record. Finally, the Diamondbacks have won 23 of his last 33 starts against teams with losing records.

The Rockies have been unexpectedly poor in Hoffman’s recent starts. They are winless in his last four Wednesday starts. They are also winless in his last five starts on four days rest. However, they have managed to win four of his last five starts following games where they have allowed two runs or less. The Diamondbacks appear to hold a mammoth edge in the pitching trends department. The Diamondbacks hold the slight edge in the overall trends department, but it is as close as the odds suggest it might be.

Edge: Arizona Diamondbacks

Line
The line for this contest has not generated much overnight movement. With the Rockies winning the first two games of this series the odds for this matchup sit at -123 for the Diamondbacks, and -131 at PointsBet. The lean in this contest is all about pitcher disparity. Coors Field has not been kind to Robbie Ray, hence the favorable odds. Ray has lost four of his last five starts there. The Diamondbacks have been the better team this season and will likely only need to limit runs against to win this contest. Ray could be the man to help them do just that as he has a 2.45 ERA over his last seven starts. The Diamondbacks have gone 5-2 in those contests.

The Rockies have the edge in team trends, but Arizona holds the edge in the pitching trends arena. They also hold the edge in the team form and pitching form departments. This contest is as tight as the odds suggest, but the starting pitchers being sent to toe the rubber provides a definitive lean.

Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks (-131)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 21-13-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.