Top MLB Bet for May 31st
Despite an action-packed Friday full of some interesting contests, identifying the top MLB bet is no easy task. With all of the top plays sporting odds over -160, a harder look at the other games on today’s slate is necessary. There is only one game that stands out as a potential value that will not require 1.5 units or more to win one unit. Today’s play of the day is not one that is likely to stand out to you. In fact, if it did, much of the public would side with the road team over the home team. This is the case despite the road team being absolutely atrocious away from home and having the misfortune of the worst bullpen in baseball. Let’s take a closer look at what could prove to be a divisive and surprising play.
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Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds
| Team | Record | Power Ranking | Runs Scored | Differential |
| Washington Nationals | 24-32 | 16 | 4.75 | -20 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 26-30 | 17 | 4.45 | +36 |
| Pitcher | Record | ERA | WHIP |
| Patrick Corbin | 5-2 | 2.85 | 1.03 |
| Tyler Mahle | 1-5 | 4.15 | 1.24 |
Form
The Washington Nationals are set to do battle with the Cincinnati Reds in an evening affair. The Washington Nationals have been the biggest disappointment in the majors this season. They have scored a healthy 4.75 runs per game, but sit eight games under .500 at 24-32. They have managed to win five of their last six, but three of those wins came against the lowly Marlins. The Nationals have a poor road record at 11-17 but have managed to win their last two in a row. The Nationals have been terrible in the team ERA department, and are giving up as many runs as they score at 4.75.
The Cincinnati Reds have a poor 26-30 record, but their ratios suggest that they have fielded a competitive team. They hold a healthy +36 run differential and have scored a solid 4.45 runs per game. The Reds have won three of their last five. They have a solid 14-13 record at home. They are a much better offensive team at Great American Ballpark where they rank in the top 12 with five runs scored per game. The Reds have proved elite in the pitching department this season. They sit fourth in the league with a 3.68 ERA. The Reds have been the team in better form this season.
Patrick Corbin has been stellar this season. He holds a great 5-2 record with a 2.85 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. He has not exactly faced a litany of world beaters this season, but he did manage to blank the hot-hitting Dodgers earlier this month. Corbin has allowed three runs or less in all but three of his 11 starts. However, he has proven to be a little more vulnerable on the road. He is a solid 2-1 through five road starts but sees his ratios jump when traveling. His 3.60 ERA and 1.26 WHIP are much more average and present a potential angle to exploit.
Tyler Mahle has been nothing special on the surface this season. He holds an unlucky 1-5 record through 10 starts, but his game log is very intriguing. He has allowed four runs or more in exactly half of his starts. However, in the other five, he has allowed one run or less. He has had only two starts at home all season and blanked the Dodgers in his last one. Mahle has been terrific at home where he holds a sparkling 0.82 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Patrick Corbin has been in better form this season, but Mahle’s home ratios are highly intriguing. The Reds hold the slight overall form edge due to playing at home.
Edge: Cincinnati Reds
Trends
There are some intriguing and unexpected trends for this contest. As mentioned, the Nationals have been a bit of a mess this season. They have lost 20 of their last 28 against the NL Central. They have lost 10 of their last 14 road games against teams with a winning home record. The Nationals have lost 35 of their last 52 series openers. They have lost 19 of their last 26 games that followed a victory. They have lost eight of their last 10 road games against a right-handed starting pitcher. The Nationals have lost 10 of their last 11 after an off day, and have dropped five straight road games against teams with losing records. Finally, they have lost 18 of their last 23 Friday games. On the bright side, they have won four of Corbin’s last five starts.
The Reds are undefeated in their last six games following a loss. They have won an impressive five of their last six against a starter with a WHIP lower than 1.15. Cincinnati is 5-1 following their last six off days. They are a rock solid 7-3 against the NL East and have won 39 of their last 58 home games against teams with a road winning percentage under .400.
Tyler Mahle has not exactly been a good luck charm for the Reds. While some of his losses are of his own doing, the team has lost three of his starts where he gave up one run or less. They have won seven of his last 10 starts on five days rest. That is where the good trends end. The Reds have lost 13 of his last 16 starts, and are winless in his last five series openers. They have lost five of his last six starts against the NL East. Finally, they have lost five of his last six starts against teams with a losing record.
The Reds have the team trends behind them, but the Nationals hold the pitcher trend edge. There are not many trends available for pitchers acquired in the offseason, but Corbin has a superior record, and the Nationals have won seven of his last 11 starts. It is, however, important to note that the Nationals are currently sporting historically bad bullpen pitching. Their bullpen has given up 140 runs, their starters have only given up 142.
Edge: Cincinnati Reds
Line
There has been some early line movement in this contest. The sharps and early bettors seem to favor the Reds. The line has dropped from +115 to +112, and to as low as +105 at popular books such as PointsBet. As you may have noticed if you followed any Nationals games, it really does not matter who is pitching, or how well they are pitching. The bullpen just continues to find new ways to lose games. The Nationals are actually fifth in the league behind Cincinnati in starter ERA. Their bullpen is in dead last with a 7.32 ERA and a .290 batting average against.
Patrick Corbin should give the Nationals a good chance to win but has been much more pedestrian on the road as opposed to at home. Tyler Mahle has been excellent at home, albeit over a limited sample size. The Reds have surprisingly been the better team this season, and seem to hold an edge over a Nationals team that struggles on the road. This contest could still go either way, so a one unit play is recommended. The Reds are the pick due to playing at home, as well as team form and trends.
Pick: Cincinnati Reds (+105)
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 21-13-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.