Top MLB Bet for May 3rd

There are some interesting matchups to consider today, so we are looking for potential hidden value. The contest that stands out the most in this regard, is one that features a multiple time Cy Young winner against an inconsistent sophomore. There are trends in support of both teams, and they have both had strong seasons. In tight contests, the lean often comes down to starting pitchers. In this case, the over/under line of 7.0 is too low to present any value, while the -166 line does not reflect the fact that the road team is undefeated in their starting pitchers last 14 starts against the home team. We will analyze tonight’s contest from a moneyline perspective.

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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres

Team	Record	Power Ranking	Runs Scored	Differential
Los Angeles Dodgers	20-13	2	5.30	+38
San Diego Padres	18-14	15	3.71	-4

 

Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP
Clayton Kershaw	1-0	2.25	0.75
Eric Lauer	2-3	4.41	1.32

Form
Today’s game features a battle between two NL West foes. The Los Angeles Dodgers will face off against a surging San Diego Padres team. Los Angeles currently sports a 20-13 record, while the Padres sit at 18-14. The Dodgers have been the more impressive team in terms of average runs scored as they sit at 5.30 per game as compared to the Padres 3.71. They also hold the edge in the run differential department dwarfing the Padres +38 to -4. The Padres have changed the outlook of their season lately by rallying off seven wins in their last nine contests. The Dodgers have won 12 of their last 17. The Dodgers are the stronger team and have been in better form this season.  They hold the team form edge despite the Padres’ recent string of strong outings.

The visiting Los Angeles Dodgers will be sending longtime ace Clayton Kershaw to the mound, while the Padres will be countering with inconsistent sophomore Eric Lauer. Clayton Kershaw has been impressive since returning from the DL and holds a 1-0 record through three starts. He holds a sparkling 2.25 ERA with a 0.75 WHIP and has struck out at least six in each of his starts. Eric Lauer holds a 2-3 record through six starts. His 4.41 ERA and 1.32 WHIP are indicative of his inconsistency and control issues. He has held his opponents to three runs or less in four of his six starts but has only reached six full frames in his two wins. Kershaw gives the Dodgers a distinct edge in the pitcher form department. The Dodgers hold the overall edge in form.

Trends
As one may expect from a team as dominant as the Dodgers have been, there are numerous trends in support of them pulling out a victory. They are 4-1 in their last five games following a loss. The Dodgers have won six of their last eight games against teams with a winning record. They are 42-19 in their last 61 against the NL West and have won 33 of their last 49 series openers.

Clayton Kershaw gives the Dodgers an excellent chance to win all of his starts. The Dodgers have won 53 of his last 65 starts against the NL West, and 76 of his last 101 starts overall. They have won 44 of his last 58 starts against a team with a winning record. They have won five of his last seven road starts against teams with winning record. Finally, they are 19-7 in his last 26 Friday starts.

The Padres are undefeated in their last six home games against a left-handed starter. They are also undefeated in their last four games against a team with a record over .600. They have won six of their last seven Friday games. The Padres have won seven of their last nine games against a left-handed starting pitcher. They also sit an impressive 8-3 in their last 11 games against a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. For some interesting trends on the other side, the Padres sit at 7-19 in their last 26 home games against a team with a losing record. They have lost six of their last seven home games following a road trip of seven days or more.

Surprisingly the Padres have been quite impressive in the pitching trends department. They are undefeated in Eric Lauer’s last six series openers. They have won six of his last seven starts against a team with a winning record. The Padres have been impressive in his recent starts against the NL West, winning five of his last seven. They sit at the same mark in his last seven starts following an outing in which the Padres allowed two runs or less. The trends suggest that this contest may be more tightly contested than one may initially think. The Dodgers hold a smaller edge than expected but hold one nonetheless.

Line
The line is this contest is better than one would expect but is understandable based on the team and pitching trends analyzed above. The Padres have been among the hottest teams in the league recently and now sit only 1.5 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West. Eric Lauer has been impressive in his wins, but his control issues make an under play too risky. The Dodgers have been the stronger team this season, and are the superior team according to our power rankings. With the Dodgers starting Clayton Kershaw the moneyline is always a consideration. His recent form and trends support this lean, and his undefeated record in his last six road starts against them solidifies it. The Dodgers are the play of the day.

Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 12-11-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.