Top MLB Bet for May 6
It is not a good day for value as far as MLB moneyline betting is concerned. There are some interesting pitchers taking the hill today, but not in good spots. In cases like these, it is often advisable to pair your moneyline play with one of your top plays in other sports. The -290 odds in this contest have already shot up from -263 and may reach -300 by game time. This contest features two teams at complete opposite ends of the spectrum. One is a division leader, the other sits at the bottom of their division. The underdog in this contest has dropped six of their last seven when visiting the home team. Is this contest as big of a mismatch as appears to be? Let’s dig deeper.
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Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros
| Team | Record | Power Ranking | Runs Scored | Differential |
| Kansas City Royals | 12-23 | 29 | 4.68 | -11 |
| Houston Astros | 20-14 | 3 | 5.02 | +46 |
| Pitcher | Record | ERA | WHIP |
| Jakob Junis | 3-2 | 5.12 | 1.45 |
| Gerrit Cole | 2-4 | 3.95 | 1.04 |
Form
The Kansas City Royals are visiting the Houston Astros in what seems to be a mismatch. The Houston Astros sit atop the AL West, while the Royals sit at the bottom of the AL Central with an unsightly 12-23 record. The Astros also hold a commanding edge in the run differential department. The runs scored metric, however, reveals that these two clubs are not too far off in terms of producing runs and that their main contrast is in the runs allowed arena. The Royals have been on a bit of a slide losing five of their last eight. They have dropped 11 of their last 16. The Astros have won five of their last eight. The Astros hold the edge in the team form department.
The Royals will be sending the talented but inconsistent Jakob Junis to the mound. The Astros will be countering with ace Gerrit Cole. Junis had a poor start to the season but was able to settle down in his last two appearances, both of which came against Tampa Bay. He has a 3-2 record through seven starts but has done so with a 5.12 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Cole has allowed three runs or fewer in all but one of his starts. He was shellacked by the Texas Rangers for eight runs in 4.1 innings. That start pushed his ERA up to look more average than his other starts indicate. His 1.04 WHIP tells the story of a pitcher who has been locked in for the better part of the season. The Astros hold the edge in the pitcher form department.
Trends
As one may expect from a contest with two teams at opposite ends of our power rankings, the trends here support an Astros victory. The Royals have won only 10 of their last 32 games, and are 19-49 in their last 68 road games. They are 14-37 in their last 51 games against the AL West. They are 6-20 in their last 26 Monday games and have won only 13 of their last 54 outings against teams with winning records.
The Royals are an impressive 5-2 in Junis’ last seven starts against teams with a winning record. That is where the positive trends begin and end for the Royals. They have lost eight of his last 11 road starts against teams with a winning record. They have lost 10 of his last 12 starts on four days rest. And finally, they are winless in his last six starts against the AL West.
On the other hand, the Astros have won 23 of their last 30 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. They have won 23 of their last 32 home games. They have also won 63.04 percent of their last 82 home games against a right-handed starting pitcher. The Astros are 35-16 in their last 51 games against the AL Central and 7-3 in their last 10 Monday games. The Astros hold a gargantuan edge in terms of team trends.
Line
The line in this contest speaks volumes. Gerrit Cole by no means guarantees the Astros a victory when he steps on the mound, but he should ensure one against the lowly Kansas City Royals. -290 is the biggest line we have recommended all season, so this is a play to include in a parlay with some NBA or MLB action.
The line has already jumped from -263, and the movement does not project to slow down before game time. We could be looking at a -300 by then. Both form and trends support what should be an easy win for the Astros in this contest. This is as big of a mismatch as it looks like at first glance, making it an excellent play to plug in a parlay with your other top plays from other sports. Laying 2.9 units for a one-unit return is never recommended, so parlay this wherever you can.
Pick: Houston Astros
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 13-11-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.