Top MLB Bet for May 8th
There are some interesting games to choose from on an action-packed Wednesday. Many of the top plays involve high enough odds to pass on, so we will take a look at what appears to be the best value. Our play of the day features two teams on the wrong side of .500 whose starting pitchers have both had strong starts to the season. These two are pretty evenly matched but are both much stronger at home. The home team is also fielding the better pitcher. We will take a look at today’s contest from a team and pitcher form perspective, as well as from a trends perspective.
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Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers
| Team | Record | Power Ranking | Runs Scored | Differential |
| Los Angeles Angels | 16-19 | 24 | 4.65 | -13 |
| Detroit Tigers | 15-17 | 25 | 3.46 | -36 |
| Pitcher | Record | ERA | WHIP |
| Tyler Skaggs | 3-2 | 3.12 | 1.23 |
| Matt Boyd | 3-2 | 3.05 | 0.99 |
Form
The Los Angeles Angels have been heating up lately and currently sit with a 16-19 record. They have won seven of their last 10, including game one of this series. The Angels have scored a healthy 4.65 runs per game this season and can turn their season around if they can continue to limit their runs against. The Tigers have the better winning percentage but have scored only 3.46 runs per game. They have lost seven of their last 10. The Tigers have an 8-7 home record, while the Angels are 5-10 on the road. The Angels hold a slight team form edge, but the road game against someone who has been a top-tier pitcher this season causes concern.
The Angels will be sending the surprising Tyler Skaggs to the mound. The Tigers will be countering with breakout pitcher Matt Boyd. Skaggs holds a 3-2 record through five starts. He has a rock solid 3.12 ERA and a respectable 1.23 WHIP. He has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his five starts but has made it past six innings only twice. Matt Boyd has been a revelation to this point of the season. He holds a 3.05 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP with 57 strikeouts in 44.1 innings. He holds a 3-2 record and has allowed three runs or fewer in all of his starts. Boyd gives the Tigers the edge in the pitching department.
Trends
As one may expect from two teams with losing records, the trends offer something of a mixed bag. The Angels are 9-1 in their last 10 games against the AL Central. They have won 26 of their last 36 games against teams with a losing record. On the other side of the coin, they have lost 36 of their last 51 road games against teams with a winning home record. They have lost five of their last seven road games against a left-handed starting pitcher. They sit at 1-5 in their last six game twos of a series. The Angels have been on a roll as far as the Tyler Skaggs trends go. They have won four of his last five Wednesday starts. They have won an impressive seven of his last 10 starts against teams with a losing record.
Staying on the negative trends, the Tigers have lost six of their last eight games against teams with a losing record. They are 3-10 in their last 13 Wednesday games and are 0-4 in their last four home games against a left-handed starting pitcher. Finally, they have lost 42 of their last 56 games against the AL West. The positive trends bode well for the Tigers. They have won seven of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record. They have won six of their last seven after scoring two or fewer runs in their previous game.
Matt Boyd is the true difference maker as far as trends go. The Tigers have won 13 of his last 16 home starts and are 4-1 in his last five Wednesday starts. They are undefeated in his last five home starts against teams with a losing record. Finally, they are 5-2 in his last seven outings following a quality start in his prior appearance. The Tigers hold the edge in the trend department with Matt Boyd on the mound.
Line
In a contest that is almost too close to call, the -110 line on both sides at Bovada seems apt. The line in this contest opened as low as -102 for the Tigers and should continue to move as the casual money rolls in. Boyd has been strong enough to warrant higher odds on the Tigers, but the Angels recent roll keeps them close. The Angels have been poor on the road where they see their 5.83 runs scored average at home plummet to 3.41. This has led to their 5-10 road record. The Angels are the better team but not when they are on the road. Matt Boyd taking the mound gives the Tigers enough of a perceptible edge to be comfortable laying the juice for a full unit return.
Pick: Detroit Tigers
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 14-11-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.