Top MLB Bet for September 13th, 2019

by Raju Byfield |
Sep 13, 2019

Todayâ€™s play of the day is a battle for the AL Central crown. The home team is 3.5 games back with a three-game series against the division leaders starting today. The home team is sending the better starting pitcher to the mound, but he is a rookie making just his ninth start of the season. The visiting team has set the new all-time single-season team home run record and keep adding to their total. This contest is likely to come down to the starting pitching. Letâ€™s dig deeper to uncover which team holds the edge-based lean.

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Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Indians

Team	Record	Power Ranking	Runs Scored	Differential
Minnesota Twins	89-57	4	5.79	+163
Cleveland Indians	86-61	5	4.74	+113

Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP
Jake Odorizzi	14-6	3.60	1.23
Aaron Civale	3-3	1.93	1.05

Form

The Minnesota Twins are set to do battle with divisional for the Cleveland Indians. Minneosta has been excellent this season and are the new single-season team home run record holders. An amazing eight of their hitters have gone over the 20 home run mark. The Twins sit atop the AL Central at 89-57. They have an elite 48-24 record on the road.Their 48 road wins lead the majors by more than four games. Minnesota has lost three of their last four contests.

Cleveland is closing in on Minnesota for top spot in the AL Central. Just 3.5 games back with three home games on the docket against the Twins, this series could decide the fate of the AL Central. The Indians are also embroiled in a wild card battle at 86-61. They have been excellent a home this season where they hold a 43-29 record. Cleveland has won five of their last six contests. These two teams are even in the team form arena.

The Twins will be sending the talented but inconsistent Jake Odorizzi to the mound. Cleveland will be countering with hot-shot rookie Aaron Civale. Odorizzi has been rock solid this season and holds a surprising 14-6 record with a cool 3.60 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. He has allowed three runs or less in 23 of his 28 starts this season. Slightly better at home this season, Odorizzi has a 3.80 ERA and 1.22 WHIP on the road. Minnesota has won seven of his last eight starts.

Rookie Aaron Civale has been excellent through his eight starts at the big league level. He holds a 3-3 record and has won two of his last three starts. He is sporting an elite 1.93 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP. Better at home, Civale holds a 1.03 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP at Progressive Field. Civale has allowed two runs or less in each of his starts this season. Cleveland holds the slight edge in the pitcher form department.

Edge: Cleveland Indians

Trends

There are some intriguing trends for this contest.

Minnesota

They have won their last five road contests against teams with winning home records.
They have won four of their last five series openers.
They have won 13 of their last 18 Friday contests.
They have won 48 of their last 71 contests against the AL Central.
They have won 39 of their last 56 road games
They have lost four of their last five contests against starting pitchers with a WHIP lower than 1.15.

Cleveland

They have won their last four contests.
They have won 21 of their last 28 series openers.
They have won six of their last eight Friday contests.
They have won 37 of their last 51 contests against the AL Central.
They have won 10 of their last 14 contests following a day off.

Jake Odorizzi

They have won his last five road starts
They have won five of his last six starts against the AL Central.
They have won four f hs last five road starts against teams with winning records.
They have won nine of his last 12 series openers.
They have won seven of his last nine starts on five days of rest.

Aaron Civale

They have won four of his last five starts against the AL Central
They have lost four of his last five starts against teams with winning records.
They have won two of his last three starts.

Edge: Even

Line

The line for this contest has seen some significant movement. It opened at -105 for the Indians but has since moved to +110 and +100 at PointsBet. Minnesota looks to be in a perilous position with a 3.5-game division lead and three-game series against an Indians team that they have lost six of their last eight contests against. Rookie Aaron Civale is the wild card in this contest as he has been excellent this season against Minnesota. Two of his eight starts have come against them (both on the road), and he holds an elite level 1.64 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP. Jake Odorizzi has likewise been excellent against Cleveland this season. He has a 1.61 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in four contests against them.

The head to head numbers leave enough room for doubt that one can understand why the line for this contest has made the movement it has. This contest should essentially be a pick â€˜em, but the overnight money has poured in on the underdog thus making them the new betting favorite. There is indeed value on both sides of this contest. Cleveland has been on a roll against Minnesota and has been playing inspired baseball as of late. In a battle that will likely come down to team form, Cleveland has the slightest of edges we have seen all season due to playing at home. Roll with the Indians as a one-unit play.

Pick: Cleveland Indians (+100)