Top MLB Bet for September 18th, 2019

Today’s play of the day is a battle between two teams with impressive offensive talent. However, that is where the comparisons end. The home team is battling for first in their division and a Wild Card spot. The visiting team has already booked their vacations for October. With that said, both teams will be sending struggling starting pitchers to the mound. In situations like these road/home splits, team form and team runs scored per game take on increased importance from an analysis perspective. Let’s dig deeper to ascertain where the value truly lies in this contest. 

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San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Team	Record	Power Ranking	Runs Scored	Differential
San Diego Padres	68-83	22	4.34	-84
Milwaukee Brewers	82-69	12	4.70	-24

 

Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP
Dinelson Lamet	2-5	4.06	1.26
Adrian Houser	6-6	3.84	1.32

Form

The San Diego Padres are set to face off against the Milwaukee Brewers in an evening affair. San Diego has had their moments this season, and they have an exciting young core to move forward with. They are 68-83 on the season and have a 33-43 record on the road. Despite the offensive talent on the team, the Padres have had trouble scoring runs. They have scored the fifth-fewest runs per game in the league. Including the first two games of this series, the Padres have lost six straight contests. 

Milwaukee has been strong this season, but have been done in by suspect-at-best starting pitching. They are reeling from the loss of Christian Yelich, but have still managed to win 11 of their last 12. They have a 82-69 record on the season and are pushing for the NL Central crown, failing that a NL wild card berth. They have a 45-31 record at home where they have won six straight. 

The San Diego Padres will be sending the talented but inconsistent Dinelson Lamet to the mound. Milwaukee will be countering with their own talented, but sometimes erratic Adrian Houser. Lamet is 2-5 on the season with a 4.06 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Lamet has actually been better on the road this season. He holds a 3.19 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP away from PETCO Park. He has allowed three runs or less in 10 of his 12 starts. San Diego has lost his last four starts, and nine of his 12 overall. 

Adrian Houser has flashed at times this season and holds a solid 6-6 record and 3.84 ERA. However, his 1.32 WHIP is more indicative of how he has fared on the mound. He has made a start in just 15 of his 32 appearances during the 2019 campaign. Houser has been much better at home this season. He holds a 3.12 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 15 appearances (seven starts) at Miller Park. He has allowed one run or less in six of his last nine starts. Milwaukee has lost three of his last four starts.

Edge: Milwaukee Brewers 

Trends

There are some intriguing trends for this contest.  

San Diego

• They have lost six of their last eight contests against the NL Central. 
• They have lost 9 of their last 11 contests against teams with winning records. 
• They have lost eight straight road contests. 
• They have lost six straight contests. 
• They have lost four straight home contests against teams with winning records. 

Milwaukee

• They have won eight straight Wednesday contests. 
• They have won their last five game threes.
• They have won their last six home contests. 
• They have won their last five home contests against teams with losing road records.
• They have won 10 of their last 12 contests against teams with losing records. 
• They have won six of their last seven against the NL West. 
• They have won 14 of their last 17 contests.  

Dinelson Lamet

• San Diego has lost his last 10 road starts. 
• San Diego has lost 19 of his last 26 starts. 
• San Diego has lost seven of his last nine starts on five days of rest. 
• San Diego has lost 14 of his last 16 starts against teams with winning records. 
• San Diego has lost his last four game-three starts. 
• San Diego has lost six of his last seven road starts against teams with winning records.

Adrian Houser

• Milwaukee has lost eight of his last 11 starts. 
• Milwaukee has lost three of his last four starts. 
• He has allowed one run or less in six of his last nine starts.

Edge: Milwaukee Brewers

Line 

The line for this contest has seen minimal early movement. It opened at -141 for Milwaukee and now sits at -140, but at -150 at PointsBet. Which team held the edge in this contest appeared to be set in stone prior to our analysis, but with a pitcher who has lost three of his last four starts, nothing in certain. With that said, our analysis has proved that the Brewers are indeed the lean in this contest and look to be a value at the current line. Milwaukee is the hottest team in baseball and have won the first two games of this four-game set. Roll with the Brewers to return a full unit.

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers (-150)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 42-34-3 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.