Top MLB Bet for September 2nd, 2019

by Raju Byfield |
Sep 02, 2019

Todayâ€™s play of the day is a battle between two teams who have had disappointing seasons. They have both underperformed relative to expectations and find themselves on the outside looking in at a playoff spot. The home favorite has a losing record overall and is facing a team five games above .500. However, the home team appears to be deploying the stronger starting pitching option for this afternoonâ€™s contest. There appears to be definite value on both sides of this contest. Letâ€™s dig deeper to uncover which side provides an edge-based lean.

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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds

Team	Record	Power Ranking	Runs Scored	Differential
Philadelphia Phillies	70-65	13	4.87	-14
Cincinnati Reds	64-73	20	4.51	+14

Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP
Drew Smyly	2-6	6.95	1.68
Anthony DeSclafani	9-7	4.05	1.29

Form

The Philadelphia Phillies are set to do battle with the Cincinnati Reds in an afternoon affair. Philadelphia has a 70-65 record but has a tough road ahead of them to qualify for one of the wild card spots. They have been weak at home this season where they hold a 29-34 record. They have won two of the three games they have played against Cincinnati this season. The Phillies are one of only two teams with a negative run differential and winning record. Philadelphia has won 10 of their last 17 contests.

Despite some flashes early in the season, Cincinnati has had a disappointing 2019. They sit at 64-73 on the season but have been excellent at home where they hold a 37-31 record. They have scored 4.51 runs per game. Thanks to a strong pitching staff they are the only team with a losing record and a positive run differential. The Reds are 4-4 in their last eight contests. Philadelphia holds the team form edge.

The Philadelphia Phillies will be sending the struggling Drew Smyly to the mound. Cincinnati will be countering with the hot Anthony DeSclafani.

Drew Smyly has been an interesting pitcher since joining the Phillies. On one hand, the Phillies have won five of his seven starts since he joined them. On the other hand, he has allowed four or more runs in four of his last five starts. He was pulled after 3.2 innings of action in the other contest. Smyly has been atrocious this season. He has a 2-6 record and a 6.95 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP.

He has been better since joining the Phillies. Smyly had an 8.42 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in nine starts and 13 total appearances for the Texas Rangers. He is finding things easier in the National League as he has a 4.97 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in seven starts for the Phillies. Slightly better on the road he has a 6.27 and 1.74 WHIP compared to a 7.44 ERA and 1.53 WHIP at his home parks.

Anthony DeSclafani is in the midst of one of his best stretches of the season. He has allowed one run or less in his last three contests. This is the second time this season he has accomplished this feat. DeSclafani has been solid this season. He has a 9-7 record with a 4.05 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.

Locked in at home he has allowed one run or less in six of his 12 starts at Great American Park. He has allowed one run or less in 13 of his 26 starts. He has allowed three runs or less in 18 of those starts. DeSclafani has been hot since the all-star break and holds a rock-solid 3.67 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. He has been stronger at home this season where he has six wins in 12 starts. He has a 3.55 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. The Reds have won four of his last seven starts.

Edge: Even

Trends

There are some intriguing trends for this contest:

Philadelphia

They have won their last five road games against teams with winning home records.
They have won six of their last seven games against the NL Central.
They have lost 13 of their last 19 Monday games.
They have lost four of their last five road games against teams with losing records.

Cincinnati

They have won five of their last seven Monday games.
They have lost five of their last seven series openers.
They have lost seven of their last nine contests against a starting pitcher with a WHIP above 1.30
They have lost four of their last five starts against teams with winning records.

Drew Smyly

Has allowed four or more runs in four of his last five starts
Philadelphia has won five of his seven starts

Anthony DeSclafani

The Reds have won six of his last eight Monday starts.
The Reds have won five of his last seven home starts.
The Reds have lost seven of his last 10 home starts against teams with winning records.
The Reds have lost five of his last six starts against teams with winning records.
The Reds have lost his last four series openers.
The Reds have won four of his last seven starts.
He has allowed one run or less in his last three starts.

Edge: Even

Line

The line for this contest has already seen some major movement. It opened at -135 for the Reds and has already jumped to -154, and -150 at PointsBet. Philadelphia has been the better team this season, but they have struggled in Cincinnati. In the most damning of the head to head trends, amazingly, the Phillies have lost 17 of their last 21 games in Cincinnati. The Reds are also deploying the pitcher in better form. Despite the aggressive line movement, Cincinnati is still a solid value.

Pick: Cincinnati Reds (-150)