Top MLB Bet for September 4th, 2019

by Raju Byfield |
Sep 04, 2019

Todayâ€™s play of the day could very well turn into a pitching duel. Two of the best pitchers of the 2018 season, both of this evenings starting pitchers have had their struggles in 2019. Both of these teams have been relative disappointments but one is fighting for a wild card spot. The other team has already planned vacations for October.

Despite what looks like an easy lean, the line for this contest suggests that this contest may be tighter than one may expect. Letâ€™s dig in to reveal whether our initial lean on the visitors is the correct play, or if our analysis ascertains that this line was set where it was for a reason.

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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds

Team	Record	Power Ranking	Runs Scored	Differential
Philadelphia Phillies	72-65	14	4.89	-4
Cincinnati Reds	64-75	20	4.47	+4

Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP
Aaron Nola	12-4	3.45	1.21
Trevor Bauer	10-12	4.53	1.29

Form

The Philadelphia Phillies are set to do battle with the Cincinnati Reds in the third game of a four-game series. Philadelphia has been strong this season and remains in the wild card mix after winning the first two games of this series. They sit at 72-65 on the season and have scored a top-tier 4.89 runs per game. Despite their impressive runs scored, the Phillies are one of only two teams with a winning record to boast a negative run differential. The Phillies have some interesting divisional matchups coming up and will be doing their best to ensure they have momentum heading into their next series with the New York Mets. Poor on the road, Philadelphia has a 31-34 record away from Citizens Bank Park. Philadelphia has won three straight games and four of their last five against the Reds.

Cincinnati has been disappointing this season. The only team in baseball with a positive run differential despite a losing record, the Reds have shown some flashes this season. They will need to improve on the offensive side of the ball to take the next step. They currently sit with a 64-75 record on the season. The Reds have been excellent at home this season, but have lost two straight to the Phillies. Cincinnati has a 37-33 record at Great American Ball Park. The Reds have lost six of their last seven overall. Philadelphia holds the edge in the team form arena.

The Philadelphia Phillies with be sending the electric Aaron Nola to the mound. Cincinnati will be countering with the relatively disappointing Trevor Bauer. After a disastrous month of April, Nola has put in three elite months of work in four months of action. Nola has a solid 3.45 ERA and 1.21 WHIP on the season. He has been locked in since the All-Star break and has a 2.95 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 10 starts since then. Nola has been much better at home this season and holds a 4.35 ERA and 1.22 WHIP away from home. He has allowed three runs or less in five straight road contests. He has allowed three runs or less in 22 of his 29 starts. The Phillies have won nine of his last 13 starts.

After a strong 2018, many thought Trevor Bauer had finally lived up to his potential and harnessed with exciting stuff, he has been a disappointment this season. He sits at 10-12 on the season and holds a 4.53 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Bauer has been slightly better at home this season but has been electric at his new home of Great American Ball Park. He holds a 1.71 ERA with a 0.86 WHIP in his new stadium. Bauer has been rocked for six or more runs in three of his six starts with the Reds. Fortunately, each of those starts were on the road. Cincinnati has lost five of his six starts since he joined the team at the trade deadline. Philadelphia holds the edge in the pitcher form department.

Edge: Philadelphia Phillies

Trends

There are some intriguing trends for this contest:

Philadelphia Phillies

They have won their last seven games against teams with winning home records.
They have won four of their last five against teams with losing records.
They have won 16 of their last 21 games against the NL Central.
They have won 42 of their last 61 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP higher than 1.30
They have won five of their last six games against right-handed starting pitchers.

Cincinnati Reds

They have won 10 of their last 14 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
They have lost 19 of their last 28 Wednesday games.
They have lost four of their last five home games against teams with winning records.
They have lost six of their last seven games against teams with winning records.
They have lost six of their last seven overall.

Aaron Nola

The Phillies have won five of his last six starts against the NL Central.
The Phillies have won eight of his last 11 road starts.
The Phillies have won 21 of his last 29 starts against teams with losing records.
The Phillies have won 11 of his last 16 game threes of a series.

Trevor Bauer

Cincinnati has lost Bauerâ€™s last four starts.
Cincinnati has lost his last four starts that followed a loss in the teamâ€™s previous game.
Cincinnati has lost his last four starts on grass.

Edge: Philadelphia Phillies

Line

The line for this contest has already started to move. It opened at +108 for Cincinnati and has already moved to +115, and +111 at PointsBet. Philadelphia at -131 with the red-hot Aaron Nola on the mound is a line that is too tempting to pass up. The Phillies did not have good head to head road trends heading into this series, but have won both games of this series and are looking to continue to stay on track for the sweep track in the third of four games.

Philadelphia has won four of their last five against the Reds and is sending the pitcher in better form to the mound. Trevor Bauer has been strong at Great American Ball Park which suggests that this contest could very well turn into a starting pitching duel that is decided based on the teamsâ€™ respective bullpens. Roll with the form and trends based edges and lay to win a unit on the Phillies.

Pick: Philadelphia Phillies (-131)