Top MLB Bet for September 6th, 2019

Today’s play of the day is a battle between the two teams who will finish the season with losing records. Both teams are 2-8 over their last 10. When these two teams one of the two has been dominant. In a matchup that will likely be decided by the strength of the starting pitching options, the home team is fielding the better pitcher. Both teams sit over 10 games under .500 but profile very differently. One has scored runs at a level usually reserved for playoff contenders. The other has had trouble scoring runs all season. The lean for this contest seems clear, especially when one takes into account the early line movement. Let’s see if our analysis confirms that the starting pitcher provides enough of an edge in this matchup to be the smart play.

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Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox

Team	Record	Power Ranking	Runs Scored	Differential
Los Angeles Angels	65-76	19	4.97	-47
Chicago White Sox	62-78	21	4.24	-141

 

Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP
Dillon Peters	3-2	4.13	1.39
Lucas Giolito	14-8	3.30	1.09

Form

The Los Angeles Angels are set to do battle with the Chicago White Sox in an evening affair. Los Angeles showed signs of promise this season, but they now find themselves 11 games under .500 at 65-76. They have scored a rock-solid 4.97 runs per game on the season, but they have also paired their offensive output with one of the worst pitching staffs in all of baseball. The Angels are one of only five teams surrendering five runs per contest. Los Angeles has a 30-49 record on the road. They are the only team in the American League with 30 road victories and a losing record. Los Angeles has lost 11 of their last 13 contests. 

Chicago has shown glimpses of promise this season, but they find themselves saddled with a 62-78 record. They have a 33-35 home record but have actually scored more runs per game on the road. They sit at 4.24 runs per game overall, but they come into this contest with a 4.46 mark on the road. Despite playing a tough Cleveland Indians team in their previous series, the White Sox have won two of their last three games. Due to playing at home, Chicago holds the edge in the team form arena. 

The Los Angeles Angels will be sending rookie Dillon Peters to toe the rubber. Chicago will be countering with the impressive Lucas Giolito. Dillon Peters has a 3-2 record through 12 appearances this season. He has a 4.13 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. Better at home, Peters has a 4.30 ERA and 1.43 WHIP away from Angel Stadium. He has allowed three runs or less in all but one of his seven starts. Los Angeles has lost five of his last seven appearances.

Top-10 among pitchers in Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Lucas Giolito sits at an excellent 14-8 on the season. He has a 3.30 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, and he has an 11.55 K/9 ratio. The 6’6″ hurler has actually been better on the road this season. He has still been solid at home where he holds a 3.91 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Giolito has allowed three runs or fewer in 21 of his 27 starts. He has allowed two runs or less in 16 of them. Chicago has won three of his last six starts. Giolito won his lone start against the White Sox this season. He punched out 11 batters in six innings en route to picking up the win. Chicago holds the edge in the pitcher form department. 

Edge: Chicago White Sox

Trends

There are some interesting trends for this contest:

Los Angeles Angels

• They have won seven of their last 10 road games against teams with losing home records. 
• They have lost 10 of their last 14 against the AL Central.
• They have lost 23 of their last 32 overall.
• They have lost 19 of their last 26 road games.
• They have lost 13 of their last 16 Friday games. 
• They have lost 10 of their last 12 series openers. 
• They have lost five of their last six road games against teams with losing records. 
• They have lost their last six games against starting pitchers with a WHIP lower than 1.15.

Chicago White Sox

• They have won their last eight home games following a road trip of seven or more days. 
• They have lost six of their last eight series openers. 
• They have lost four of their last five home games. 
• They have lost eight of their last 10 overall. 
• They have lost 42 of their last 62 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP above 1.30.

Dillon Peters has made only seven starts for the Angels. He does not qualify for any pitcher trends. 

Lucas Giolito

• Chicago has won five of his last six Friday starts.
• Chicago has won seven of his last nine starts against teams with losing records. 
• Chicago has won nine of his last 13 starts on four days of rest. 
• Chicago has lost five of his last six series openers. 
• Chicago has lost his last five home starts.

Edge: Chicago White Sox 

Line

The line for this contest has seen some dramatic movement. It opened at -124 on the Chicago White Sox and has already jumped to as high as -152, and -150 at PointsBet. The game is a battle between two teams on the outside looking in for the playoffs, and the Angels have won eight of their last nine games against the White Sox. Their only loss came when Lucas Giolito took the mound. This matchup is likely going to come down to the performance of the starting pitchers. Giolito is the far superior option, and he gives the White Sox an edge in this matchup. Outside of the head-to-head numbers, our analysis suggests they have both form and trends on their side. Our play of the day looks to be one of the top values on the board. Chicago is a one-unit play. 

Pick: Chicago White Sox (-150)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 41-31-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.