Top MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (4/20)
We have a massive sports Saturday on the horizon, which includes a 16-game slate in the MLB. The bonus game comes courtesy of a doubleheader in Wrigleyville, Chicago, as the Cubs host the Marlins for a pair of games.
Below, I’ve listed my three favorite bets for today’s action on the diamond, along with analysis and betting odds.
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Saturday’s Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook)
Detroit Tigers (+115) @ Minnesota Twins (-140) | O/U 7.5 (-115/-105)
The Tigers picked up a divisional win in last night’s series opener against the Twins, winning 5-4. The two sides are back at it this afternoon, and we have a pitching matchup between Reese Olson and Bailey Ober. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET from Target Field in Minneapolis.
I’m playing the under in this AL Central tilt. Let’s just start with the basic offensive numbers, where these are two of the worst offenses in the league. Minnesota enters today’s action ranked 29th in team batting average (.190) and 28th in OPS (.606), while Detroit is 24th (.223) and 26th (.639), respectively. Neither team has used the longball much this year, each ranking 24th or lower in home runs.
Ober will get his second crack at the Tigers in six days after he faced them in last Sunday’s series finale in Motown. The right-hander was excellent, blanking Detroit over 6.0 innings while allowing only three hits. Olson didn’t pitch in that series, but he has been serviceable this season, posting a 3.86 ERA and 1.47 WHIP over three starts (16.1 IP). These bullpens are also two of the best in the MLB. The Tigers are first in both bullpen ERA (1.67) and WHIP (1.00), while the Twins are fourth (2.70) and sixth (1.17) in those respective categories. Let’s take the under in the Twin Cities this afternoon.
Bet: Under 7.5 (-105)
Arizona Diamondbacks (-125) @ San Francisco Giants (+105) | O/U 8.0 (-110/-110)
The Diamondbacks and Giants are in the midst of a four-game divisional series this weekend, where they’ve split the first two games of the series. Zac Gallen gets the nod for the Snakes this afternoon, while the Giants opt for Kyle Harrison. First pitch is set for 4:05 p.m. ET from Oracle Park in San Francisco.
Arizona cruised to a 17-1 blowout win on Friday night, pushing them to 10-11 on the year. I think they’ll carry the momentum into Saturday and notch a second straight victory. Plus, we’re getting their ace, Gallen, toeing the rubber with just a -125 moneyline price. I’ll lay the juice with the Diamondbacks today. This will be Gallen’s fifth start of the season, and he’s a perfect 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA (14th) and 1.14 WHIP (40th). The right-hander also has 26 punchouts, which is 23rd in the Majors.
San Francisco will send Kyle Harrison to the bump, and he’s 2-1 with a 4.70 ERA (69th) and 1.26 WHIP (58th). We have no head-to-head numbers for Harrison against Arizona. I think it’s safe to say the Diamondbacks have the edge in starting pitching. They’re also better in both team batting average (.260 vs. .241) and OPS (.748 vs. .683), as well as bullpen ERA (3.95 vs. 6.03) and WHIP (1.28 vs. 1.44). Let’s lock in the Snakes to secure their second straight win.
Bet: Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline (-125)
Chicago White Sox (+240) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-300) | O/U 7.5 (-125/+105)
The White Sox are shaping up to be one of, if not the worst, team in the league this season. They’re just 3-16 out of the gate, which translates to a 25-137 record if you play it out of a full season. They’ll try to get back in the win column tonight when they send Michael Soroka to the mound. The Phillies counter with Zack Wheeler in this interleague tilt, which is set for 6:05 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.
This is typically a little more vig than I’d like to lay, especially with a home-team run line, but I still feel like we’re getting a decent price against the worst team in baseball. Plus, we have Wheeler going for the Fightin’ Phils, and he has been pretty solid to start the 2024 campaign. The right-hander is 0-3 but owns a 3.00 ERA (37th) and 1.04 WHIP (30th). He’ll face a Chicago offense that’s dead last in team batting average (.190), OPS (.554) and home runs (10).
Ultimately, I see Wheeler turning in a quality start, which means Philadelphia’s offense shouldn’t need to put up much run support to cover the run line. However, they’ll take on an ex-NL East pitcher in Michael Soroka, who they’re slashing .297/.333/.378 against over 37 at-bats. Over the last seven days, the Phillies are 10th in team batting average (.250), seventh in OPS (.757) and third in home runs (10). Their bats should find enough success to guide them to a multi-run win over the lowly White Sox.
Bet: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-135)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday: