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Top MLB Betting Picks for Friday, August 13th (2021)

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Several teams committed to life as sellers in the final hours before the trade deadline and held a mass liquidation on marquee players. Anybody who spent time on Twitter on July 30 would agree—it made for an exciting day across baseball. However, the ramifications of that active deadline throughout Major League Baseball are swiftly becoming clear in the aftermath.

The Nationals have lost 10 of their 12 games since the July 30 trade deadline. One of their wins came against the Cubs, so it doesn’t really count. Why’s that? Because the Cubs have also lost 10 of 12 games since the deadline, including each of their last eight contests. Both teams have performed as shells of their former selves after shedding significant core players late last month. 

For Friday’s betting picks, we’re going to consider the likelihood that these recent themes continue for some of MLB’s bottom-feeders.

(Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-125)

The Brewers have been a prime beneficiary of the deficiencies of the Cubs already this week, blistering Chicago in four straight games. The combined score across the series: 37-9. The flimsy Cubs lineup put Corbin Burnes on the highlight reel when he matched an impressive record by striking out 10 consecutive Cubs hitters in Wednesday’s win. Burnes struck out a total of 15 batters across eight shutout innings in a 10-0 win. Yeah, it’s a bad time to be a Cubs fan.

The National League Central-leading Brewers will now roll into Pittsburgh, riding the high of that series sweep over their depleted division rival. Their Friday starter won’t likely put up a performance on par with Burnes’ effort earlier in the week. Nevertheless, Brett Anderson shouldn’t have too much trouble holding the Pirates lineup in check.

Coming off of a calf injury that limited him in his last outing on Sunday, Anderson is riding a strong stretch on the mound of late. In his past five starts, he has compiled a 1.40 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in 25.2 innings. He’ll take on a Pirates offense that mustered just seven runs in a sweep at the hands of the Cardinals this week. Though the Pirates didn’t do as much selling as some of the other clubs we’ve discussed—in fairness, they didn’t have much to sell—the deadline left their roster just as bereft of talent.

Mitch Keller is slated to start for Pittsburgh. He shows an ERA above 7.00 on the year and has given up four earned runs in both of his starts this month since being recalled from Triple-A Indianapolis. It’s conceivable the Brewers, who hung 17 on the Cubs Thursday, will have a profitable day against Keller.

The basement-dwellers of the NL Central having trouble with the red-hot division leaders—it stands to reason.

Cincinnati Reds / Philadelphia Phillies, Under 6.5 runs in 1st 7 innings (-110)

We’ve got a chance at a sneaky strong pitching duel in Philly on Friday night.

Zack Wheeler of the Phillies will oppose Tyler Mahle of the Reds in what could be a low-scoring affair if Mr. Wheeler pitches anything similar to how he did in his most recent start. The 31-year-old Wheeler is coming off of his best outing of the season, a two-hit shutout in which he struck out 11 Mets hitters on Sunday.

For the season, Wheeler is 10-6 with a 2.42 ERA and a league-leading 181 strikeouts. He’s put together a robust innings total, too, performing as a true workhorse at the top of the Philadelphia rotation. The Reds’ lineup contains legitimate star power throughout the batting order, but Wheeler should bring his best in a compelling match-up. 

On the other side, Mahle has another opportunity Friday to build upon the most complete season of his career. The Cincinnati right-hander enters this contest with a pedigree in unfriendly circumstances. Mahle boasts a 6-1 record and 2.06 ERA on the road this season.

By targeting the total after seven innings, we’re limiting our potential exposure to any struggles the bullpen may ensure after the departures of the starting pitchers. DraftKings offers a total of 4.5 runs after five innings but with less favorable odds on the under. We’ll take our shot on two quality hurlers making their marks deep into the game.

Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+110)

If you didn’t skip the article’s opening to jump straight into the picks, you read about how little consideration we’re giving to the Nationals right about now. There’s a reason for that. Washington has done a lot of losing lately. We’re not thinking anything changes on that front for Friday.

Atlanta’s Charlie Morton has been around the block. At age 37, he’s still pitching like he’s in his prime. At 10-4 with a 3.52 ERA, Morton has been one of the steadiest starters in the National League this season. There’s reason to believe he can enjoy some success against the Nats on Friday. After all, he had plenty of it against them the last time he pitched.

That start came on Saturday, as Morton twirled six scoreless innings of three-hit baseball against Washington. Typically I’d lean toward the group of hitters having an advantage over the pitcher in a quick-turnaround rematch like this one. We must consider the state of the Nats, though. It seems more likely the veteran Morton can establish a plan to repeat his dominance from last Saturday.

The Nationals stripped their roster down to the studs last month. The Braves retooled with several additions at the deadline. Atlanta should have the advantage heading into the weekend series in D.C.

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Brenden Schaeffer is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Brenden, check out his archive and follow him @bschaeffer12.