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Top MLB Betting Picks For Saturday, August 21st (2021)

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We’re officially embarking on one of the most difficult periods of the schedule to bet on baseball. The bad teams are really bad, and many have begun unofficially folding the tent on the 2021 season – bringing up some prospects for a look at the Major League level, and as a result, are heavy underdogs.

In fact, 10 favorites lay -150 or higher on the moneyline, nine lay -170 or more, and eight lay -190 or higher. There’s very little value left on those teams, so it shortens the board for bettors like us. So, we’ll have to pivot and look at run lines, first five inning lines, and totals.

Here are my two favorite bets, both totals, for Saturday’s MLB action.

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Arizona Diamondbacks / Colorado Rockies Over 10.5 (-110)

There are a few over 10’s out there, but you’ll have to lay around -140 at most books. I’m fine with that bet as well, but I’ll opt for the bet closer to even money instead.

The Rockies’ home/road splits are some of the most fascinating numbers in recent memory. Despite being over 20 games back in the division and more than 10 games under .500, Colorado’s home record is right on pace with the three juggernauts in their division: 41-21. That’s a .661 winning percentage, and over the course of a full season, that’s a 107-win team. On the road, Colorado is a brutal 14-45 and is averaging just a shade over three runs per game – 3.03, in fact, the worst in baseball. Luckily for us, we’ll get the Rockies at the Coors Field launching pad, where they average nearly double their road scoring output – 5.90 runs per game, the best in all of baseball.

Colorado will also face Zac Gallen, who has not only struggled this year, he’s struggled lifetime against the Rockies. Gallen is 1-7 with a 5.03 ERA, and it’s climbed every start since the end of July. He’s really in a rut and has allowed 12 earned runs over his last three starts – all against divisional opponents. Colorado wasn’t one of those opponents, but clearly, teams that face Gallen often know how to attack him. He’s faced the Rockies once this year, at home, and allowed four runs on six hits in just four innings of work. Lifetime, Colorado is hitting .276 in 65 plate appearances off the Arizona right-hander.

The Rockies starter not only hasn’t been much better this year but he’s also struggled even worse against Arizona than Gallen has against Colorado. Kyle Freeland sports a 4.40 ERA and a 1.416 WHIP in his 15 starts this year, and while he hasn’t faced the Diamondbacks yet this season, his career numbers are forgettable. The left-hander has faced Arizona’s lineup for a total of 121 plate appearances, and he’s allowed a .303 batting average, a .311 expected batting average, and an expected slugging percentage of .550. What’s worse – he’s only striking out one of the lightest-hitting teams in baseball over the last few seasons at a 10.7% clip.

I like the over in such a hitter-friendly environment, even if it’s the highest total currently on the board.

Philadelphia Phillies / San Diego Padres F5 Under 3.5 (+100)

Taking unders with these two teams may seem strange, but both Aaron Nola and Joe Musgrove have been electric against the lineup they’ll be facing on Saturday night. The full game total is 7.5, with the under sitting at -105. With so much uncertainty in the Phillies bullpen and the propensity for the Padres bats to come alive late, I like trusting these two starters to get us through the early frames unscathed.

Aaron Nola’s season ERA isn’t great (4.48), and it’s his worst mark since 2016. But this year, he’s seemed to alternate good and bad starts at a surprisingly consistent rate. For example, in May, he held Milwaukee to one run in six innings, and the following start allowed five runs in just four innings in Atlanta. The trend continued: Nola allowed three runs in 6.2 innings against the Blue Jays, then gave up four in five innings against Boston and rebounded by giving up just a single run in six innings in Miami.

I won’t continue to list his game logs. Still, the same pattern happened in June when he allowed four, zero, six, zero, and then seven runs consecutively, and now he’s in the midst of another roller coaster – and one that looks destined to land on a low number in San Diego tonight. His strikeout numbers are there – he’s striking out over a batter per inning and is in the 81st percentile in K-rate – and all he has to do is get us through five strong. Nola has also been good lifetime against San Diego, holding them to a .200 average, a .215 expected batting average, and a .298 expected slugging percentage – so the success isn’t a fluke.

Musgrove has had similar success against the Phillies, and a far better year than Nola, so look for him to really shine tonight. Philadelphia is hitting just .211 career off Musgrove with a .213 expected batting average and a high 30.2% strikeout rate. The right-hander is coming off a dud against the Diamondbacks, but before that was in some of his best form of the season. Musgrove allowed a combined four earned runs in 19 innings of work in the four prior starts, striking out 28 batters in the process.

These two teams have also uncharacteristically slowed down at the plate over the last few games as the dog days of August hit their peak. The Phillies were swept by the lowly Diamondbacks and managed to scratch across just two runs in each of the three games off one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball. And the Padres were swept in Colorado, and while they scored 13 runs in three games – it’s nowhere near the expected output given how hitter-friendly Coors Field is. Both teams are in a bit of a funk and need to break out of their collective slumps, but it’ll be hard to do so against these starters. I like working with just the first five innings in this one and like getting even money. Most books won’t offer a round number of 4, but if they do, I wouldn’t bet it any lower than -130.

MLB Prop Bets

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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.