Top MLB Betting Picks for Saturday, June 12th (2021)
As the trade deadline inches closer and division races across Major League Baseball begin to heat up, each game begins to mean more and more. A hot streak could turn a team from a probable seller at the deadline to a buyer looking for the final piece or two to the championship puzzle. With a tight race in nearly every division â four of the six second-place teams are within two games of first place â this year could be one of the more interesting deadlines in quite a bit. But letâs not get ahead of ourselves just yet. There are still 16 games to be played today.
Todayâs slate of games is jam-packed with all 30 teams in action. There are plenty of heavy favorites to sift through, but still tons of value on the board. Hereâs who I like best on another MLB Saturday edition of best bets.
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Reds / Rockies Over 9 (-115)
The Reds have been able to score runs all year. Theyâre sixth in the league, averaging 4.87 runs per game, and are suddenly one of the hotter teams in the National League. Theyâve won eight of their last 11 games, averaging 5.72 runs per game over that span, nearly a full run per game more than their season average. For context, the Astros average 5.42 runs per game, the highest mark in baseball. Cincinnatiâs bats are officially on fire.
Wade Miley will take the mound for the Reds, which may scare off some over bettors as heâs been fantastic this year. But a deeper dive into his numbers should ease the tension. Despite having a sub-3.00 ERA, Miley just doesnât go very deep into games. Aside from his no-hitter, he hasnât thrown more than six innings in a start this year, and heâs averaging just 4.2 innings per start in four outings since the aforementioned no-no.
The Reds bullpen isnât great either; in fact, theyâre worst in baseball with a 5.88 ERA. Theyâll be relied upon for at least three innings if Miley pitches to expectations today, and Iâm not sure they can hold the fort for that long. Miley has also historically struggled against Colorado. The Rockies are hitting .328 against him lifetime, and his strikeout rate against Colorado is just 13.3%.
The Rockies will send German Marquez to the mound to take on a Reds lineup currently clicking. Marquez has pitched better the last month or so, but like Miley, heâs historically been hit hard by the lineup heâs set to face. Cincinnati has an expected batting average of .280 against Marquez, and their average exit velocity is 92.9 MPH. Theyâre not just making contact, theyâre hitting the ball really hard. And in such a hitter-friendly park, that smells like runs. Coloradoâs bullpen is better than Cincinnatiâs, but not by much. Their ERA is second-worst in baseball at 5.43, ahead of only the Reds.
These two teams piled up 16 runs on Friday night, and thereâs no reason to doubt that Saturday wonât be more of the same.
Boston Red Sox ML (-120)
The Red Sox have caught fire again and have ripped off seven wins in their last nine games as they prepare for game two of a four-game wraparound set against the Blue Jays. Boston will send Nick Pivetta to the mound, and heâs been as close as it comes to automatic this year. Despite Pivettaâs 3.78 ERA â which isnât all that bad but certainly isnât sparkling â the Red Sox are 10-2 in games he starts, including a win against these Blue Jays on May 20th. Pivetta struck out eight in that contest, his second-highest total of the year.
*Note: The odds posted in the above tweet reflect the Red Sox odds on June 7th, not today.
Boston, as expected, is one of the better offensive teams in baseball this year. They average an even five runs per game, good for third in the league, and theyâll look to beat up on Steven Matz as theyâve done each time theyâve faced him in his career. Current Red Sox own a lofty .362 average off the Toronto left-hander, and they roughed him up to the tune of five runs on 10 hits in a losing effort back in May.
The Red Sox have been in control of the season series, coming out on top in four of the six meetings with the Blue Jays this year. Boston should be a much heavier favorite than -120, so I donât mind laying a little extra juice on the Red Sox here. I like them down to -130 and would also consider the over on their team total at 5.5 (+120).
MLB Prop Bets
- J.D. Martinez Prop Bet Odds
- Cody Bellinger Prop Bet Odds
- Clayton Kershaw Prop Bet Odds
- Brandon Woodruff Prop Bet Odds
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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.