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Top MLB Betting Picks For Saturday, October 2nd (2021)

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To start this article off on a happy note: we’ve got October baseball, which means the playoffs are right around the corner. Sunday is the last day of the regular season, and the Wild Card games are slated for Tuesday and Wednesday. A 162-game regular season comes down to nine innings of baseball for four teams; it doesn’t get any more exciting than that.

On a sad note, however, this will be the 2021 regular season’s final installment of Saturday best bets. We’ll of course be here throughout the playoffs and World Series, but this article is our regular-season finale. It’s been a fun ride, and thank you to all the readers, followers, faders, and especially those who provided feedback and the always appreciated share on social media.

Like some MLB teams, our season is hanging in the balance. With a 30-29-1 (50.8%) record, profitability hinges on these two final bets. Thanks to some clutch plus-money winners, like the Tigers run line last week at +155, we’re +1.35 units on the season. My goal was modest: lock in 10 units of profit. While I fell well short, there are still positives to be taken from finishing in the black and ending the season with more money than we started; even if it is just a few units.

I was always taught to always play to win and never play not to lose, so while a 1-1 day locks in a winning season, I’m still gunning for two wins. Here are my final two best bets for the 2021 regular season – both totals.

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

New York Yankees / Tampa Bay Rays F5 Under 5 (-115)

The game total on Saturday is 9, which is uncharacteristically high for the Yankees and Rays. Only twice this season has the total landed over 8.5, and it hasn’t happened since mid-April. I know the Yankees are hot and the Rays are always capable of putting up a crooked number. But the Yankees need to keep winning if they want the Wild Card game to be played at their park, which means they’ve got to deploy their pitching staff wisely and limit the damage as much as possible. That means if Jordan Montgomery struggles early, he’s getting a quick hook and handing the ball over to a high-leverage reliever to get the Yankees out of a jam.

I don’t expect the big left-hander to struggle, however. He’s been really strong this year and above all – consistent in a Yankee rotation that’s been anything but that. Dating all the way back to June 20th, 15 starts ago, Montgomery has lasted at least five innings 12 times (80.0%). He’s allowed one or no runs in 10 of those starts (66.7%), and has only allowed more than three runs once (6.7%). He’s also been spectacular against the Rays after getting roughed up in back-to-back outings in April. In the ensuing three starts against Tampa, Montgomery has allowed just two runs in 17.1 innings, and the Rays are hitting just .223 with a .397 slugging percentage lifetime off him. There’s no such thing as a lock, but Montgomery’s been pretty darn reliable against his division rival.

The Yankee bats also have tons of trouble hitting Rays pitching. They’re hitting just .189 as a team against Tampa Bay – third-lowest against any opponent and lowest against any AL opponent – and their OPS is a dreary .599, which is the lowest by far against any foe this year. They’ll face rookie Shane Baz, who’s been electric since being called up in September and will look to continue his dominance against a Yankees lineup who’s struggled this year and over the last few seasons against a pitcher they’ll be seeing for the first time. Tampa’s plan for Baz has been pretty apparent in his first two starts – let it fly. He’s pitched no more than 5.2 innings in either start, and he’s averaging 96.9 MPH on his fastball which he throws 49.7% of the time. Baz isn’t holding anything back, and he knows the Rays don’t need or want him to pitch deep into games. His job is to put up zeroes through the first five, and if he sticks to the plan, our under will cash with ease.

I don’t mind the full game under in this one either, but with the Rays already clinching home field and winning the series opener last night, I don’t want to risk them using lower-leverage relievers this afternoon. I’ll trust these two strong starters to keep the runs to a minimum.

Colorado Rockies / Arizona Diamondbacks Over 8.5 (-110)

This seems like a misprice, and I know this game is being played in Arizona, not Colorado, but with the way these two pitchers have performed this season, it doesn’t matter where the game is being played. I expect runs and plenty of them.

Antonio Senzatela will go for Colorado. He owns a rough 4.10 ERA on the year, and he’s somehow struggled against the Diamondbacks – the worst team in the NL. The Rockies’ righty is allowing Arizona to hit .328 off him; no fluke either – the expected batting average off Senzatela is .310 and his FIP (fielding independent pitching) is 4.76, over a half-run higher than his actual ERA. He’s also limping to the finish line; he’s allowed at least seven hits in each of the last three starts while getting absolutely no swings and misses. Senzatela ranks in the fifth percentile in strikeout rate and eighth percentile in chase rate. It clearly doesn’t matter how weakened Arizona’s lineup is, because Senzatela isn’t fooling anyone.

Zac Gallen will toe the rubber for the Diamondbacks, and he’s had a more disappointing season than his Colorado counterpart. Gallen’s ERA is 4.37 and it hasn’t been below four in mid-July. This season can’t end soon enough for the young righty. He’s also allowed four runs in two of his last three starts as well. Like Senzatela, Gallen will be facing a lineup who knows and hits him well. The Rockies are hitting .293 off the Arizona righty with an average exit velocity over 90 MPH, making him one of just four pitchers on the Saturday slate allowing an average exit velocity of over 90 MPH against the lineup he’ll be facing.

I clearly expect these starters to be chased early, which is even better for this over because these are two of the worst bullpens in baseball. Arizona’s bullpen is the second-worst in terms of ERA and strikeouts, while Colorado’s is fifth-worst in ERA and third from the bottom in punchouts. Four of the last five meetings between these teams have gone over, and as I mentioned earlier, this isn’t Colorado but Arizona is still hitter-friendly. It’s the fifth most hitter-friendly ballpark in the NL, according to ESPN’s Park Factor, so look for runs early, and runs often.

MLB Prop Bets

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