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Top MLB Betting Picks For Saturday, September 11th (2021)

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The summer heat has broken, there’s a chill in the air, and it’s finally starting to feel like playoff baseball is right around the corner. We’re officially under one month from the start of the MLB playoffs, and there are still plenty of teams fighting for a Wild Card spot.

There are also a ton of heavy favorites on the board for Saturday, so not a ton of lines to pick from for this edition of best bets. I focused my attention on a few teams fighting for their playoff lives and found a total and a home underdog I like a lot. I expect one, if not both, of these lines to move quickly, so make sure to shop around and scoop up the value before it disappears.

Without further delay, here are my two favorite bets of the day.

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Oakland Athletics / Texas Rangers Over 8.5 (-110)

It probably seems odd to be playing a Rangers over, especially in September, considering the down year they’ve had. But they’ve actually started picking it up lately against left-handed pitching – which they’ll be facing today – and they’ve got a ton of exposure to the lefty on the mound for the A’s – Cole Irvin.

Texas was dead-last in July, hitting lefties with a horrid .193 batting average, but over the last 30 days, they’re hitting .246 against southpaws. That’s good for just 17th in the majors, so it’s not like they’re tearing the cover off the ball, but it’s a 14-position climb, and I think this line factors in public perception that the Rangers can’t hit. They’ll also be facing Cole Irvin for the fifth time this year, all over the last three months, and for the third time since the beginning of August. Despite being one of the lighter-hitting teams in baseball for much of the year, Texas has had a decent amount of success against the Oakland lefty.

Irvin owns a 4.50 ERA against Texas, nearly a half-run higher than his season ERA, and they’ve been particularly adept at driving his pitch count up. He’s gone past the five-inning mark just once in his four starts against the division-rival Rangers, and he’s allowing a lofty .279 batting average against vs. Texas – 49 points above their season average. Irvin is also in the middle of a brutal stretch where his ERA sits at 8.14 over his last five starts, so Texas should be able to continue trending upwards in this one.

Oakland will have the luxury of facing Kolby Allard, who will also be squaring off with his opponent for the fifth time this year. The A’s have knocked Allard around worse than Texas has beat up Cole Irvin; Allard’s ERA against Oakland on the year is 5.18, just a tick higher than his overall 5.00 ERA. The A’s expected batting average against Allard this season is a sparkling .313, and they’re slugging .567 as a team off the young left-hander.

Some trends are also on our side in this one. Texas is 37-30-3 to the over on the road this year, Oakland is 5-4-1 to the over in their last 10, and these teams typically play high-scoring affairs. The over has hit in five straight meetings and is 9-6-0 on the season. Look for these trends to continue and play this one down to -120.

New York Mets ML (+115)

This line won’t last long, but I would bet it down to even money. It’s a little strange that the Mets are plus-money at home against a Yankees team that’s dropped seven in a row and 11 of 13, and it’s been a difficult year to back a streaky Mets team, but the Yankees have hit rock bottom.

The Mets will start Taijuan Walker, who’s been struggling a bit of late, but pitched very well against the Yankees back in July. He allowed just two runs on two in 5.2 innings in a Mets victory in the Bronx, striking out five in the process. Walker allowed a season-high six runs in his last outing, but the Yankees simply aren’t hitting right now. They’re averaging a dreadful 2.2 runs per game over their last five and 3.0 runs per game over the course of their 13-game skid. This is a prime bounce-back spot for Walker, whose ERA was below three when he last took the mound against the Yankees.

The strongest pillar of this bet is a fade of the Yankees’ probable approach on the mound. They’ll start Corey Kluber, who hasn’t been very good since returning from the IL and quite honestly hasn’t been overly impressive this year outside his no-hitter. He’s failed to throw five innings in a stunning seven of 12 starts, and since returning from injury, he’s given the Yankees just 7.2 innings combined over two outings while allowing six runs in the process. What’s more, he threw just 68 and 78 pitches, respectively, so not only has he struggled to put hitters away, he’s still ramping up from missing three months. Don’t expect much length in this start either, even if New York allows him to stretch to the 85-90 pitch mark.

The Yankees are seemingly adamant about using Andrew Heaney, who has been a disaster since arriving from the Angels at the deadline. As a Yankee, he’s got a 7.71 ERA and has allowed multiple runs in three of his four relief appearances. A former starter, he’s been the guy out of the bullpen New York likes to piggyback onto starters after a short outing. More likely than not, he’ll be the first pitcher out of the bullpen on Saturday. He pitched on September 5th, 7th, and 9th, and that pattern indicates he’ll be available today as well.

Last night, New York also used their two other long relievers, Michael King and Albert Abreu, to mop up a blowout loss to the crosstown-rival Mets. They haven’t yet named a starter on Sunday, and there’s some speculation it could be Heaney, but with the overuse of the longer bullpen arms last night, I can’t see the Yankees kicking the can down the road one more day. 

It’s impossible to back the Yanks right now, and it doesn’t look like Saturday is the day they’ll be able to right the ship. Take the Mets down to even money in the Subway Series.

MLB Prop Bets

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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.