Top MLB Betting Picks for Sunday, April 4th (2021)
What an exciting first few days on the diamond. We’ve seen a 5-5 game after just one inning, multiple no-hit bids, even seen a benches-clearing brawl between the Reds and Cardinals. And it’s only been three days!
On the unfortunate side of things, COVID has already affected the MLB schedule, as an outbreak within the Nationals’ clubhouse caused their first series with the Mets to be postponed. And for the few of us out there who still love a good old-fashioned pitchers duel, we were robbed of another Max Scherzer/Jacob deGrom battle.
There are unusually just 12 games Sunday, as the Rays, Marlins, Mariners, and Giants join the aforementioned Mets and Nationals on the sidelines.
With plenty of matchups still to choose from, here are my top MLB betting plays for Sunday.
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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Oakland Athletics ML (-115)
What a nightmare start to the 2021 season for Oakland. They’ve dropped all three meetings with Houston by a combined score of 26-7, but we’re on them on Sunday to avoid the always-dreaded four-game sweep at home.
The A’s will send Sean Manaea to the mound, looking to rebound from a forgettable 2020. In 11 starts, Manaea posts a 4.50 ERA and a 1.204 WHIP, his H/9 nearly doubled to 9.5, and his K/9 dipped from 9.1 to 7.5. Like many pitchers in a strange 2020 season, his velocity disappeared, but this offseason, Manaea changed his routine, and it paid dividends in the spring. He’s gone from sitting around 90-91 MPH with his fastball in 2020 to topping out around 94 MPH this spring.
Manaea has also historically pitched relatively well against Houston. Despite a 3-5 record, his career ERA against the Astros is 3.27 across 13 starts, the second-lowest against any team he’s made at least five starts against.
Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel, Alex Bregman, and Michael Brantley are the five Houston regulars who have faced Manaea at least 10 times, and they’ve combined to hit just .211 off him, with only five home runs and 19 strikeouts in 123 at-bats. George Springer was the Astro who really had Manaea’s number, hitting .324 with 11 RBI against him, but thankfully for us, he’s now a Blue Jay.
Oakland didn’t lose four in a row at any point last year, so I expect them to halt this early season skid and finally chalk up a win against Houston.
Bet: Oakland Athletics Moneyleine (-115)
Philadelphia Phillies ML (+110)
From a team that has yet to win to a team that has yet to lose. The Phillies have taken each of the first two meetings with the Braves, holding Atlanta to just two combined runs, including a shutout on Saturday where they tallied just a single hit.
The Braves’ bats just haven’t shown up. As a team, they’re dead-last in batting average, on-base percentage, and OPS through the first three days of the season. They’ve got more players (three) who have yet to record a hit than they do players who have multiple base-hits (two). And as an offense, they’ve struck out 24 times already, which is fifth-most among teams who’ve played just two games.
They’ll be sending Ian Anderson to the mound, who was spectacular in 2020, sporting a sparkling 1.95 ERA and 11.9 K/9, all while allowing just one home run across six starts. This spring, however, was much, much worse. Anderson’s ERA ballooned to 6.38, his WHIP climbed over a hit-and-a-half per inning, and he allowed five home runs in just 18.1 innings of work.
Philadelphia will send Zach Eflin to the mound, a right-hander who is coming off his best year as a pro. He posted his best win percentage, ERA, K/9, K/BB, and WHIP of his career in 2020, and he built off his success even further this spring. Eflin was handed the ball for three Spring Training starts, pitching to the tune of a 0.82 ERA and not walking a single batter in 42 plate appearances.
I don’t think the Phillies should be an underdog here, so I’ll gladly take them at plus-money odds to sweep the Braves to open the 2021 season.
Bet: Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (+110)
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