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Top MLB Betting Picks For Wedesday, August 11th (2021)

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Guest expert alert!

This is my first crack at MLB picks for the season, but rest assured: You’re in good hands. I have two recommendations that the trends support, including an all-in play on a young Detroit Tigers starter that appears to have righted the ship following some bad home-run luck.

Here are my best bets for August 11th.

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Detroit Tigers ML (-115)

Which direction you lean in Wednesday’s matchup between the Tigers and the host Baltimore Orioles depends almost entirely on how you believe Detroit starter Tarik Skubal will fare – and based on his previous outing, Tigers backers have to be feeling pretty good.

Skubal wasn’t as electric as he had been earlier in the summer, but did well to keep a powerhouse Boston offense at bay, limiting the Red Sox to five hits over five scoreless innings with four strikeouts. It was a significant outing for Skubal, who had posted a 5.86 ERA (while surrendering nine home runs) in five July starts that effectively negated the momentum of a red-hot June (3.14 ERA, 37 Ks in 28 2/3 innings).

The Orioles went deep three times against Skubal in a 4-3 win over the Tigers on July 30, home runs that came on grievous mistake pitches from the 24-year-old lefty. But he has shown more good than bad over his past dozen starts, and is facing a foe in Matt Harvey who still boasts an ERA north of 6.00 despite showing glimpses of being a competent starter in recent weeks.

Has Skubal figured things out again? No one can say for sure – but given how he looked last time out, I recommend paying for a better showing in Wednesday’s rematch with the woeful O’s.

Milwaukee Brewers / Chicago Cubs Under 10 (-107)

I can’t tell if this total is disrespectful to Corbin Burnes, or overly respectful to the Milwaukee offense. Whatever the case, we’re looking at a double-digit number for a Brewers-Cubs encounter that features one of the top pitchers in the National League – and that feels a tad too high.

Burnes has been sensational, allowing one run or fewer in five of his previous six starts. And as one of the few pitchers in baseball who will routinely pitch deep into games, it’s quite conceivable that Burnes will reach the seventh inning or beyond against a recently gutted Chicago offense.

His opponent, Jake Arrieta, has been the personification of a dumpster fire, having surrendered 61 runs in just 54 1/3 innings since the end of April. But he has a not-catastrophic 4.97 ERA in three turns against the Brewers so far this season, and the Chicago bullpen owns a respectable 3.82 ERA (10th-best in baseball) heading into a mid-week matchup with a Milwaukee offense ranked 21st in wRC+ (90).

If Burnes does what he’s supposed to do in this one, I don’t see how these teams get to 10+ runs.

MLB Prop Bets

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