Top MLB First Five Spread Bets for Wednesday, April 27
Today is a get-away day for many teams across Major League Baseball, and that gives us a beautiful slate of afternoon baseball. In today’s selections, I’ve pinpointed one of those glorious weekday afternoon matchups, which will be followed by two-night games that will keep your card filled throughout the day. So, with an early start ahead of us, let’s dive into the top first five spreads of the slate.
New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals 1:17 p.m. ET
The Mets have begun to prove that they are the real deal by taking the first two games of this series. This afternoon they’ll be facing an old friend in Steven Matz. Matz got his start in New York and had plenty of ups and downs there. However, since leaving, his results have not changed all that much. He had a tremendous 2021 in Toronto but will enter this start with a 5.27 ERA after his first three starts with the Cardinals.
Opposing him will be Carlos Carrasco, who has been nothing short of amazing through his first few starts of the 2022 campaign. He’ll enter with a sparkling 1.47 ERA, and he’s averaged just over a strikeout per inning thus far. The difference between these two is the quality of contact that they have allowed. The contrast is quite stark. Carrasco is in the top half of the league in hard-hit rate, which has led to his success. Many hitters have had trouble with his change-up and slider in the early going as he’s also in the top third of the league in whiff rate.
For Matz, the story is much different. He may have put together two good starts after a dreadful season debut, but the underlying metrics seem to show he’s been more lucky than good. Matz will enter this start in the bottom third in the league in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. In turn, he is also in the bottom four percent in expected ERA.
Matz’s tendencies make him prone to a rough outing, and the Mets are perhaps the last team he wants to face here as they are arguable the best offense in the National League. So back Cookie and Mets to get out ahead early here as they go for the sweep.
Pick: Mets F5 -0.5 (-130)
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies 6:46 p.m. ET
The Phillies lineup has been scolding hot through the first two games of this series, as they’ve totaled 18 runs so far. Now they’ll get to face a young pitcher in Ryan Feltner, who’s making his third career big league start after a rough cup of coffee at the end of last season. In his short time as a Rockie, Feltner has displayed command issues which produced bad results whether the ball was in the zone or not. He’ll enter with a career 11.37 ERA and has about as many walks as he does strikeouts. The rookie should be shaking in his cleats as the big bats of the Phillies lineup have picked it up this series, and Feltner may be on the tracks with a train coming through.
On the mound for Philadelphia will be Ranger Suarez. Suarez has produced a ton of soft contact this season as he’s been a nightmare for lefties in his career. Speaking of his career, during his time with the Phillies, Suarez has been very comfortable on his home mound as his ERA is nearly a full run lower than on the road. However, the home-road splits do not stop there, as the offense he will be facing is much different in this spot. The Rockies’ numbers are boosted by a lot of home cooking, but you can see just how good their offense really is when you look at the sizeable drop in thier numbers when on the road this season.
Everything points towards the Phillies getting on the board early and giving Suarez plenty of run support.
Pick: Phillies F5 -0.5 (-144)
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers 8:05 p.m. ET
This rendition of the battle of Texas reaches the third game of a four-game set, and there is quite a mismatch between the men on the mound. Going for the Astros in this one will be Christian Javier, who has been excellent out of the pen so far this season. Javier has yet to allow a run thus far and has averaged 12.96 strikeouts per nine innings. His stuff appears to have reached a new level as he is in the top ten percent in strikeout rate and in the top half of the league in every other expected category.
The young Glenn Otto will be squaring off with Javier, who’s making his second start of the season. Otto’s line against the A’s may look good as he only allowed one run and two hits over five innings of work. However, he gave up plenty of hard contact in that start, his hard-hit rate was 50 percent, and his average exit velocity was 92.8. That is concerning, as he’ll be facing a far more potent lineup this time around. The Stros are in line to do much more damage with that hard contact, and Javier should silence the Rangers for at least two of the five innings here.
The Astros opened as the final five underdogs but have since shifted to the favorites. While you can find them as underdogs, the line is heavily juiced. So I’m choosing to back them as slight favorites with a much better price.
Pick: Astros F5 -0.5 (+105)
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