Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets & Matchups for Friday (2022)
Life, death, taxes, and Shane McClanahan throwing an absolute gem. Right now, the Rays lefty should probably be considered the front runner for the AL Cy Young award, and has allowed five earned runs in last 40 innings. That, my friends, is the definition of an ace.
There are many ways to bet on a baseball game. One of the most exciting ways, now, are No Run First Inning Bets (NRFI). Really, it’s as simple as it sounds; you can bet on whether a run will be scored by either team in the first inning. Especially at a time when scoring is at an all-time low, it’s more likely than not that a run is not scored, leading to prices being juiced towards the “under†taking place. Even with that, the most logical bets are usually to side with the under, as you’ll see here!
Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
It would appear that Luis Castillo’s days with the Reds are almost numbered. After all, the Reds have a 20-37 record and have been intent on cutting costs, and Castillo’s name has already been brought up in several trade discussions. For Cincinnati fans, it’s a shame that it has come to this, but here we are.
On the bright side for the Reds, Castillo is likely to bring that back a notable haul. Why? Well, he’s been tremendous (3.58 skill interactive ERA/SIERA) since coming off the injured list, and should continue to. After all, he induces plenty of ground balls (career 55.1% GB) and whiffs (career 13.9% career swinging-strike rate), and he should only continue to perform better the more he separates himself from injury.
Cincinnati, meanwhile, has the sixth-lowest weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) this season, and now face a pitcher in Andre Pallante who thrives in terms of suppressing barrels thanks to a 63.4% ground ball rate. In fact, in a ballpark that is the third-most friendly for pitchers, per Baseball Savant, the ability of both of these pitchers to limit home runs by virtue of a very high ground ball rate. That increases the margin for error here; with the overall talent of Castillo combined with Pallante pitching against a poor offense behind a strong defense, there’s a lot to like with the under here, especially at this price. After all, there are few things that would seem to be more automatic that a NRFI in a game in St.Louis.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves
Usually, a matchup between the Pirates and Braves in the beginning of June would not lead to an extensive amount of excitement. Yet, I cannot overstate how irrationally excited I am for this game, and it all comes down to the pitching matchup.
In Roansy Contreras, the Pirates should believe that they have found a future frontline starter to build around. During his time in the upper levels of the minors since the start of the 2021 season, the 22-year-old struck out 33.4% of the batters he faced, posting a very strong 25.9% K-BB. He’s continued to perform tremendously (3.28 SIERA) during his time in the big leagues, and with a tremendous 113.7 stuff+ rating by Eno Sarris’ predictive model, he is someone who is going to miss a lot of bats on the MLB level. The Braves as an offense still only sport the 14th-best wRC+ and the highest strikeout rate in the majors; it should be anticipated that Contreras has success here.
On the other side, the Pirates have the third-lowest wRC+ in the league, and now have to face Spencer Strider, who has continued to miss bats (31.6% K) in two starts since transitioning to the rotation, has been dominant (2.91 SIERA) this season, and features an incredibly strong 142.5 stuff+ rating (3rd in MLB) and 107.9 pitching+ rating (52nd in MLB) this season, per Sarris. The Pirates rank in the bottom-ten in runs above average against fastballs and sliders, which is Strider’s entire pitch mix. He won’t have the same leash that other starters have, but there is plenty of reason to have a lot of faith in him on a per-inning basis.
Even in an offensive-friendly ballpark, it’s hard to look past what these two pitchers bring to the table. When all else fails, bet on talent, and that’s exactly what you’d be doing here. Particularly at such a reasonable price, how could you not want to side with two of baseball’s most exciting rookie pitchers?
Miami Marlins at Houston Astros
An NRFI involving the Astros is always incredibly risky, but is absolutely impossible to ignore this pitching matchup.
Sandy Alcantara garners most of the attention in Miami, but don’t forget about Pablo Lopez, who has posted a 3.30 SIERA and 19.5% K-BB, yet, based on his 13.7% swinging-strike rate, should have an every higher strikeout rate. Whether it’s missing bats, inducing ground balls (47.4% GB), or limiting walks (6.6%), Lopez can do it all; even against a vaunted Houston lineup, he’s the type of pitcher you want to trust.
Similarly to Lopez, Luis Garcia doesn’t get the recognition he likely deserves in a very talented rotation, but let’s no let him fall under the radar. The 25-year-old misses bats (12% swinging-strike rate), and his historical ability to induce a lot of weak fly balls (29.2% under rate) also leads to him limiting the amount of runners that reach base against him. Outside of the long ball, it’s generally difficult to score runs against him, which should be satisfactory facing an offense in the middle of the pack in isolated power (ISO) this season.
Both of these offenses possess legitimate talent, but we also can’t ignore what these pitchers bring to the table. Minute Maid Park also happens to be ranked as the seventh most-friendly ballpark for pitchers, per Baseball Savant, helping us out further here. In a battle between sea and space, expect a standstill for the first inning.
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