Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Odds for Brewers vs. Pirates Friday, July 1 (2022)
Let’s take a look at some No Runs First Inning prop bet odds and picks for today’s game: Brewers vs. Pirates.
Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Odds: Brewers vs. Pirates
What makes a quality baseball game? For me, the pitching matchup plays a significant role; in this case, that box is checked, and then some.
At this point, does Brewers ace Corbin Burnes need any sort of introduction? The reigning NL Cy Young Award winner has continued to be absurdly dominant with a 26.7% K-BB and 2.69 skill interactive ERA (SIERA) and may very well be the best pitcher in baseball and the most complete pitcher as well. Let’s just put it this way: he combines swinging strikes with called strikes (33.5% called-strike + whiff/CSW) as well as any pitcher in baseball, limits walks (5.7%) extremely well, and has a projected HR/9 from THE BAT projections under 1. Against the third-worst offense based on weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+), this feels as close to a lock as you can have in baseball.
That places all of the pressure on the top of the first inning. That being said, there is reason to have faith in the Pirates’ young starter Roansy Contreras. Per Eno Sarris’ predictive stuff+ (112.3) and pitching+ (101.1) model, Contreras rates as an above-average starter, and the results (30% CSW) mainly check out. How many pitchers throw a 96.3 MPH with nearly two extra inches of vertical movement compared to average, particularly from a low release height, while mixing in a wipeout slider (41.1% whiff)? Not many; while he may not pitch long into this outing, his per-pitch effectiveness ought to be strong.
The Brewers rank just 18th in wRC+ over the past 30 days, while PNC Park suppresses home runs at the fifth-highest rate. Any game featuring Burnes, particularly against the Pirates, will lead to a steeper NRFI price, but, in this case, it is well worth it. Take advantage of what should be the lowest-scoring game of the day.
Bet: Brewers at Pirates NRFI (-138 on FanDuel)
Best Player Prop Bet Rankings for Brewers vs. Pirates
What are Player Props?
Player props refer to wagers that bettors can make based on player performance in a specific game. The majority of player props are built around the most common statistical benchmarks for a specific sport such as yards and touchdowns in football. Most player props are straight over/under plays that open at or near -110 and are adjusted based on where the money lands.
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