Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Odds for Cardinals vs. Pirates (6/15)
Let’s take a look at some No Runs First Inning prop bet odds and picks for today’s game: Cardinals vs. Pirates.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Odds: Cardinals vs. Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals
Speaking of the Cardinals, this is a fun time for the Redbirds. Not only are they ten games above .500 and have a 2.5 game lead in the division, but they also get their ace back for this game.
That’s right, Jack Flaherty is finally back! It’s been a while since we have seen the 26-year-old fully healthy, so it’s easy to forget how talented he is. Since the start of the second half in 2018, the 26-year-old has struck out 29.3% of the batters he has faced, as well as a 20.9% K-BB and a 3.75 skill interactive ERA (SIERA). Now, he could be shaky in his first start back, but he also gets to face the offense with the third-lowest weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+). Even though there is some risk baked in, the odds are still dramatically in his favor.
Last week, we harped on how special Pirates starter Roansy Contreras could be, and the same principles apply here. In his four starts since being called back up, the 22-year-old has a 19.8% K-BB and 3.43 SIERA, and he checks all the boxes of a future frontline starter. I mean, how many pitchers can sit 96-97 MPH with a fastball with two extra inches of vertical movement compared to average, allow it to play up due to a very low release height, as well as have a wipeout slider? Eno Sarris’ predictive stuff+ model agrees, giving him a 113.5 stuff+, well above the average rating (95) for a starting pitcher.
The Cardinals only have the league’s 13th-highest wRC+ against righties, rank in the bottom ten in isolated power (ISO), and also in the bottom three in barrel rate. Thus, in this case, we should gladly bet on such a talented young arm. Plus, add in that Busch Stadium is the third most-friendly ballpark for pitchers, per Baseball Savant, and it becomes clear that this is THE NRFI bet to make today.
Best Player Prop Bet Rankings for Cardinals vs. Pirates
What are Player Props?
Player props refer to wagers that bettors can make based on player performance in a specific game. The majority of player props are built around the most common statistical benchmarks for a specific sport such as yards and touchdowns in football. Most player props are straight over/under plays that open at or near -110 and are adjusted based on where the money lands.
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