Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Odds for Friday, April 29th
Ladies and gentlemen, the weekend is here! The focus right now may be on the NFL Draft, but there are plenty of exciting baseball games on display that I highly recommend tuning into! Phillies-Mets with Aaron Nola and Tylor Megill, specifically, could catch your eye.
There are many ways to bet on a baseball game. One of the most exciting ways, now, are No Run First Inning Bets (NRFI). Really, it’s as simple as it sounds; you can bet on whether a run will be scored by either team in the first inning. Especially at a time when scoring is at an all-time low, it’s more likely than not that a run is not scored, leading to prices being juiced towards the “under†taking place. Even with that, the most logical bets are usually to side with the under, as you’ll see here!
Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays
Are we witnessing the beginning of a bounce-back season for Dylan Bundy? After all, through three starts, he has allowed just one earned run in 15.1 innings! Well, unless he doesn’t allow a home run all season, maintains a .222 batting average on balls in play allowed (BABIP), or continues to strand 90.9% of the batters he leaves on base, probably not! That being said, there is plenty of reason to be intrigued by the 29-year-old.
In the early going of the season, Bundy has thrown his fastball + sinker less, while slightly increasing the amount of sliders and changeups he throws. Meanwhile, he’s currently peppering the zone (58.1%), which, if it is a trend moving forward, doesn’t make him a threat to walk batters, which could turn this into “home run or bust†for a Tampa Bay offense that ranks middle-of-the-pack in runs scored per game (4.2) this year.
I know it is a small sample, but it doesn’t surprise me to see that, in his three starts so far this season, Rays starter Corey Kluber has a 29.6% strikeout rate working the first time through the order. At this point of his career, he’s a pitcher who likely will only work four-to-five innings, but that doesn’t mean he can’t get us through this bet. It’s only a matter time before his curveball starts to induce more whiffs (20%). Plus, we’re also banking on the fact that Tropicana Field is one of the least-friendly ballparks for opposing hitters, particularly in terms of strikeouts.
Kluber is the type of pitcher who should be able to remain effective at least through the first few innings, while Bundy right now profiles as a low-volatility type of pitcher based on his ability to pepper the zone, especially against an average top of the lineup. It’s also never easy for a team coming in to play at Tampa Bay and deal with the catwalk, which may help us out here further. While this may not be a “slam dunk†pick, I like our chances of coming out on top here!
San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates
Remember when Yu Darvish allowed nine earned runs in 1.2 innings against the Giants, and chaos ensued? Well, since then, he has allowed one earned run over his following 14.2 innings, along with a 31.9% strikeout rate, despite going up against the Braves and Dodgers.
Well, Darvish now gets to face a Pirates offense that is in the bottom-ten in wRC+; that’s quite the drop down in competition. By tweaking his pitch mix to throw more four-seam fastballs and splitters, he’s putting himself in position to have the bounce-back season that we all wanted to see. Do I think that suddenly stops against a subpar Pirates offense in a ballpark that suppresses home runs, his major issue? No, no I do not.
It’s risky banking on Pirates starter Zach Thompson, who has allowed twelve earned runs in 10 innings pitched, with just a 3.4% K-BB ratio. Yet, he is still missing bats with a 11.7% swinging-strike rate and 28.6% whiff rate, while his batted-ball luck (2.7 HR/9, .425 BABIP) will not remain this poor. The Padres have been about an average offense statistically against right-handed pitching thus far, and haven’t gotten much production from their leadoff spot this season, specifically from Trent Grisham. I think Thompson’s talents are much better than his overall numbers thus far, and I don’t think this is a test he can’t handle.
Well, at least for just one inning, which is all we are looking for. I have full confidence in Darvish making good on this, while the concern about Thompson helps lower the price slightly for the NRFI here. It’s a gamble, especially at a somewhat heavy price, but, as they say, “you have to risk it for the biscuit.â€
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers
Honestly, I’m surprised that the total for this game (eight) is as high as it is. Based on wRC+, the Brewers have the fifth-worst offense this season, and while the Cubs have the fourth-highest wRC+, they have benefitted from a soft schedule of opposing pitchers, including two series with the Pirates and a four-game series with the Rockies. The true talent level of their offense indicates that they are bound to take a step back eventually, so why not now?
Although Adrian Houser won’t wow you with a strong K-BB ratio (4.7%), he gets by due to his ability to induce ground balls (career 57.1% GB), which allows him to suppress home runs, and plays well behind one of the best defenses (2nd in defensive runs saved) in all of baseball. T his is how he was able to overachieve his peripheral numbers last year, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him do it again.
With a 21.6% strikeout rate and 4.05 skill interactive ERA (SIERA), Kyle Hendricks has looked a lot like his old self thus far. It should be only a matter of time before the walks (10.2% BB) get back on track, especially since he has only walked 4.7% of the batters he has faced in his last two starts. Right now, there aren’t many offenses you would rather face than the Brewers offense, and this is setting up to be a successful outing for him. That is perfect for us, you should benefit from a clean first inning with no runs scored.
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