Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Odds for Friday, August 12 (2022)
We’re living dangerously tonight as these two NRFIs will make you look like you just got out of a sauna. However, the return on them could be excellent as they are each plus money odds. So let’s dive into my top two NRFI plays of the slate.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays – 7:07 pm ET
Look, I get it. Jose Berrios is not a guy you want to back in an NRFI. His metrics and first-inning numbers are poor, but he figured something out in the month of July. Berrios finished July 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP while striking out 42 batters over 36 innings. While he seemed to have turned back into a pumpkin in his last start, who we saw in July is the true Jose Berrios. This has been a lousy year for Berrios, but overall it is an outlier, and he’s proven recently that he can still be successful. He’ll face a Cleveland lineup tonight that hits righties well, but they don’t always get off to hot starts. The Guardians rank 13th in first-inning runs per game on the road. Toronto hosting this game is big for Berrios as he’s been drastically better on his home mound. Through 11 starts at home, he holds a 3.23 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.
The other side of this equation may seem scary as we’re fading a dangerous lineup at home, but in reality, the Blue Jays rank just 18th in first-inning runs per game at home this season. In addition, Cal Quantrill has been tremendous in the first inning this year. Through 21 starts, he has a 2.14 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. While his metrics do point toward some regression, he usually does not being to get hit around till the second time through the order, which is way later than we need him for. So back this unlikely pair of righties to give us a clean first.
Pick: NRFI +105
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox – 7:10 pm ET
The most storied rivalry in baseball is set to add another chapter this weekend, but the first inning of the first game will be surprisingly uneventful. Domingo German will be getting the ball for the Yankees this evening. His numbers are inflated due to being knocked around in his first start of the season, but since then, he’s gone three straight starts without allowing more than two runs. Tonight he gets to face a Boston team that appears to have packed it in as they sold at the deadline, and the future of their stars is unknown. On top of that, the Red Sox are 27th in first-inning runs per game at home this season.
Taking the ball for the other half of the inning will be Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi has had his share of struggles since coming off the IL in July, but he’s been great in the first inning this season. He enters this outing with a 2.65 ERA and 1.12 WHIP through 17 starts. He is the counterbalance to the Yankees lineup that is second in the majors in first-inning runs per game on the road. Along with that, this Yankees lineup has hit Eovaldi will in the past as through 198 at-bats, they have a team xBA of .313. However, this Yankees team is not the well-oiled machine we saw in the first half. They have struggled mightily of late and have scored in the first in two of their last three games, so they are due to regress here.
Pick: NRFI +115
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