Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Odds for Friday, August 26 (2022)
We’re set to close out the week strong, but it’s not going to come without a little sweat. I’ve honed in on two NRFIs that are not for the faint of heart, as we will be fading some of the best hitters in the game. Let’s dive into who and why we’re fading them.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays – 7:07 pm ET
Mitch White has been excellent since putting on a Blue Jays uniform. Through three starts, he holds a 3.38 ERA despite his WHIP being up a tad at 1.50. Although, that shows he’s been able to work out of jams which is a critical skill when it comes to getting out of the first inning clean. In 13 starts overall, White has a 3.30 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in the first inning this season. However, he’ll have a challenge in front of him as the top three of the Angels’ orders is about as good as it gets. He will see some combination of Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, and David Fletcher. Those are two of the most talented hitters of all time combined with a tough out in Fletcher. However, the Angles have rarely gotten off to hot starts on the road, as they rank 18th in first-inning runs per game on the road.
Facing an even more formidable task at the bottom of the first is Reid Detmers. The top of the Jays’ order is loaded with bats that excel against left-handed pitching, but Detmers has been a very different pitcher over the last two months. Since being recalled in July, Detmers has a 2.50 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. Like his counterpart, Detmers will also benefit from a misconception about the lineup he’s facing. Yes, the Jays are potent, but they rank just 17th in first-inning runs per game at home. Take this contrarian NRFI.
Pick: NRFI -115
San Francisco Giants vs. Minnesota Twins 8:10 pm ET
Twins ace Joe Ryan will get us going in the top of the first. He’s a great pitcher to target when looking for an NRFI. As a rookie, Ryan has become the best starter in a loaded Twins rotation. He’ll enter this start with a 3.86 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through 20 starts. However, his first-inning ERA is inflated a bit at 4.50, but he’s due for some positive regression as his WHIP is 0.90. Ryan will also have a great matchup as the San Francisco Giants rank 26th in first-inning runs per game.
The other half of the first will be in the hands of Alex Wood. Wood is due for some sizable positive regression as his 4.54 ERA is well inflated from how he’s actually pitched. Wood’s xERA is 3.71, and his FIP is 3.65. He’s also pitched very well in the first inning this season. Through 24 starts, he holds a 3.00 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. We will need him to begin his turnaround tonight as the Twins rank 11th first inning runs per game at home.
Pick: NRFI -130
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