Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Odds for Friday, May 20th (2022)
Have a day, Trevor Story! With him getting on base in all five plate appearances, hitting three home runs, scoring five runs, and driving in seven runs, itâs safe to say he has a game to remember. For fun, in this game, he had a 1012 weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+), meaning he was 101.2% better than the league-average hitter, while his wRC+ went up from 80 to 112 in one day. Oh my!
There are many ways to bet on a baseball game. One of the most exciting ways, now, are No Run First Inning Bets (NRFI). Really, itâs as simple as it sounds; you can bet on whether a run will be scored by either team in the first inning. Especially at a time when scoring is at an all-time low, itâs more likely than not that a run is not scored, leading to prices being juiced towards the âunderâ taking place. Even with that, the most logical bets are usually to side with the under, as youâll see here!
San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants
The Dodgers may appear to be the top clear team in the NL West, but with the Padres and Giants also in the fold, this is quite the competitive division. With both of these performing well (combined 46-29 record) and trying to continue to position themselves for a playoff spot, this should be a very entertaining series by the bay.
Plus, this also may be the lowest-scoring game of the day, playing in well for no run to be scored in the first inning. Initially, Jakob Junis may not be the type of pitcher that pops off the screen, but the Giants voodoo magic knows no boundaries. See, the 29-year-old has been significant changes to his pitch mix this season:
- Slider: 39.9% to 56.3%
- Sinker: 4.1% to 29.2%
- Changeup: 3.3% to 12.9%
- 4-Seam Fastball: 34.8% to 1.7%
- Cutter: 17.4% to 0%
Junisâ cutter, which he introduced last season, was quite ineffective, while his fastball (.418 expected weighted on-base average/xwOBA) has gotten hit significantly hard throughout his career. On the contrary, his slider (.243 xwOBA, 36.6% whiff) has been by far his best pitch. With this change in pitch mix, should we be surprised heâs been fantastic (11.5% swinging-strike rate, 3.27 skill interactive ERA/SIERA) thus far? Absolutely not.
In his last start, Sean Manaeaâs sinker velocity (91.9 MPH) was much closer to his peak velocity. Regardless, heâs been effective (13.4% swinging-strike rate, 3.18 SIERA) this season, and his new fly-ball inducing style with more elevated sinkers works much better in a very expansive ballpark. With two intriguing pitchers in the ideal environment for no offensive success, the under here is a strong bet.
Bet: SD at SF NRFI (-130)
Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles
Considering these two teams are in the bottom-six in payroll, you wonât expect there to be already an 8.5 game difference between these teams. However, thatâs the magic of the Rays for you!
Speaking of the Rays, theyâre back to maximizing their roster in this game, utilizing Jalen Beeks as an opener for Ryan Yarbrough. In 35 innings since the start of the 2020, Beeksâ numbers have been off the charts:
- 30.9% K, 25.2% K-BB, 2.58 SIERA
With the ability to miss bats (15% swinging-strike rate) and induce an extensive amount of ground balls (50%), Beeks is the complete package as a reliever. Between leadoff hitter Cedric Mullins being a lefty and #3 hitter Anthony Santander being a switch-hitter who has historically struggled much more versus left-handed pitchers, Beeks is in good position to hold down the fort against an Orioles lineup that already ranks fourth-worst in wRC+ versus left-handed pitching. Well, heâd be in position to perform well regardless of opponent.
With just a 16.4% strikeout rate this season, Tyler Wells wouldnât seem overly impressive at first glance. Yet, his underlying numbers, including a 10.6% swinging-strike rate, point to some positive regression in the strikeout department. Plus, believe it or not, but based on Eno Sarrisâ pitching+ model, which has proven to be very predictive, Wells is only behind Kevin Gausman in pitching+ (111.8) for starting pitchers, which speaks to his combination of a tremendous arsenal (108.4 stuff+) and command (109.8 location+).
Remember, Wells was Baltimoreâs top high-leverage reliever last year for a reason, and itâs encouraging to see his underlying pitch data numbers still be strong in extended outings. Heâs still not likely to pitch more than five innings in this game, but he should be effective on a per-pitch basis.
Once upon a time, expecting runs to not be scored at Camden Yards would be a scary thought. Now, with the dimensions greatly altered, that is no longer the case. Once Beeks turns the game over to Yarbrough and Wells eventually exits/gets fatigued, more runs will likely be scored here. Donât count on that happening in the first inning, however.
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians
Itâs time to continue to risk it for the biscuit!
With a 9.85 ERA in six starts this season, to say that things havenât gone as planned for Guardians starter Aaron Civale would be the understatement of the century. Yet, itâs hard to buy into those struggles when all of his basic underlying indicators (15.7% K-BB, 3.99 SIERA) are right in line with what youâd expect from him as a steady starter. Unless you think that his .382 batting average on balls in play allowed (BABIP), 44% left-on-base-rate, or 2.19 HR/9 will maintain, which natural laws of statistics would say they certainly wonât, we should see him perform remarkably better in a hurry.
Of course, it helps when you get to face a Tigers lineup that ranks second-worst in wRC+ that is also by far scoring the fewest amount of runs (2.8) in baseball. With Austin Meadows out of the lineup due to injury, the lineup only takes a greater hit. Itâs only a matter of time before Civale gets back on track, and this is quite the opportunity.
On the other hand, Tigers starter Tarik Skubal is quickly emerging as one of the more exciting young pitchers in baseball. We were hoping that the lefty would take a step forward this season, and with a 28.3% strikeout rate, 23.3% K-BB, and 2.80 SIERA, he has clearly done just that. By cutting down on his fastball usage to induce more ground balls (48.1%) with his sinker, heâs adapting to improve from his home run issues from last season, while his ability to strike batters out is well documented. Essentially, he doesnât walk batters, can induce plenty of whiffs, and now has made adjustments to induce ground balls? That sounds like a pretty reliable pitcher.
The Guardians offense has dropped off significantly (sixth-worst wRC+) versus lefties, and they lack any sort of power at the top of their lineup. Factor in the growth that Skubal has taken, and this likely comes down to Civale, which is a chance worth taking against arguably the worst lineup in baseball. This price is much lower than it should be due to some concerns about sides, but that is something to take advantage of.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether youâre new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section â including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners â or head to more advanced strategy â like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread â to learn more.