Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Odds for Friday, May 6th (2022)
Is this the year it all comes together for the Mets? After a stunning seven-run inning in the top of the ninth to defeat the Phillies 8-7, the Amazin’ Mets now find themselves 18-9, and have as much talent as any team in baseball. Imagine what could happen assuming Jacob deGrom comes back from injury! It looks like we’ll be seeing playoff baseball in Queens this year.
There are many ways to bet on a baseball game. One of the most exciting ways, now, are No Run First Inning Bets (NRFI). Really, it’s as simple as it sounds; you can bet on whether a run will be scored by either team in the first inning. Especially at a time when scoring is at an all-time low, it’s more likely than not that a run is not scored, leading to prices being juiced towards the “under†taking place. Even with that, the most logical bets are usually to side with the under, as you’ll see here!
Check out our No Runs First Inning consensus odds for today >>
Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins
Evidenced by the Twins’ (-182) money line, this is not expected to be a very competitive game. However, that doesn’t mean we can’t have a nice competitive game for a few innings!
Interestingly, both of these teams will be sending pitchers to the mound who did not crack the opening day rotation but will make necessary spot starts due to injuries. That being said, if Minnesota wanted to have their most optimal rotation, Josh Winder is more than qualified to hold down a spot for them. The 25-year-old dominated Double-A and Triple-A last season with a 29.1% strikeout rate with just a 4.7% walk rate, allowing him to rise up prospect ranks; Fangraphs currently has him as the 91st overall prospect in baseball.
So far, Winder has taken an unconventional, but wise approach to succeeding at the big-league level, throwing his fastball just 32.4% of the time. The result? A 12.2% swinging-strike rate through 16 innings of work thus far. Facing the third-worst offense based on weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) this season, he’s in line for a successful outing.
The other side of things is more complicated, as the Twins have emerged as one of the better lineups in all of baseball. That being said, with Carlos Correa likely out after leaving Thursday’s game after getting hit by a pitch and Max Kepler moving down in the lineup against lefties, they won’t be as potent at the top as they usually are. It’s risky riding with Zach Logue, who has struggled in Triple-A this season, but it is important to remember that he too was quite productive in the minors last season with a 28.2% strikeout rate with just a 5.3% walk rate.
Neither of these pitchers are well known, but the A’s offense continuing to struggle and Minnesota’s offense taking a hit with no Correa and against a lefty, no run being scored in the first inning is a nice proposition. You’ll have to sweat out the bottom of the first inning, but, hopefully, when it’s all said and done, you can rub it off with the feeling of victory!
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks
If there’s one more tried and true theory in baseball, it’s that the Rockies are a very vulnerable offense in their first game on the road after a home stretch. Well, after playing six straight games in Colorado, the Rockies will have to make a quick adjustment going to a much less run-friendly environment in Arizona, and will do say without Kris Bryant at the top of their lineup.
Plus, let’s not act like Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly isn’t anything but a pitcher who should at least bake some level of trust into. His altered his pitch-mix this year, adding extra vertical drop to a changeup that he is throwing, along with his cutter, more often than before; this has allowed him to cut down on the usage of his fastball and sinker. Thus far, with an improved 25.4% whiff rate and 3.40 skill interactive ERA (SIERA) through 28.1 innings, the results have matched up with the change in process. He’s more than been a steady pitcher in the past, but there is a chance he has unlocked another level this season.
Based on his 19.3% strikeout rate, you wouldn’t be overly impressed with Rockies starter Chad Kuhl thus far. Yet, that’s overlooking the fact that his 13.5% swinging-strike rate points to massive positive regression in terms of his strikeout rate, while he’s cut his walk rate is half by throwing more pitches in the zone (49.4%) than ever. Most importantly, though, he’s facing the fifth-worst offense in terms of wRC+; we’ll see if he can keep missing bats against better offenses in the future, but Arizona is not one of them.
Frankly, I’m not sure why this game total is at eight, given the adversity Colorado will have to deal with and the struggles of the Diamondbacks’ offense. However, that improves the price for the NRFI here, making it one well worth taking. Having two pitchers performing well along with two offenses expected to be slow out of the gates makes this, in my opinion, the clear best NRFI bet of the day.
St.Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants
This is definitely the NRFI bet with the highest price attached to it. That being said, the matchup makes it too difficult to pass pass up.
Not only does this rematch of the 2012 and 2014 NLCS feature two National League playoff hopefuls, but it’s arguably the most likely game of the day to not involve a run scoring in the first inning. For starters, both of these offenses are middle-of-the-pack in overall wRC+, with the Cardinals specifically struggling (22nd in wRC+) against right-handed pitching thus far. Meanwhile, both pitchers aren’t household names, but ones that you should count on in the first inning.
After Giants starter Alex Cobb didn’t make it out of the first inning of his last start, you may reluctant to trust him here. Yet, he only allowed one earned run during that inning, and it was also his first game back from a groin injury. You could argue he wasn’t ready to get off the injured list, but his velocity (94.9 MPH) remained where it was previously, and two MPH harder that it was last season. As a pitcher who can miss bats and induce plenty of ground balls, while pitching in a favorable ballpark, he is someone you should have faith in.
As a converted reliever who hasn’t gone further than three innings in a game this year, you shouldn’t expect a lot of volume from Jordan Hicks. Yet, like Cobb, few pitchers induce ground balls (63.6%) like he does, while he’s essentially equivalent to a reliever/opener starting out the game- he’ll be pitching with max effort right out of the gate. With Brandon Belt still out of the lineup, the Giants’ top of the lineup definitely takes a hit, and I’ll gladly take my chances with Hicks.
Two pitchers who induce a lot go ground balls against two teams that don’t hit for a lot of power in a game at one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball? Sign me up for the under here. Although the price is a bit steep, it’s still one that offers some potential value. Sit back, enjoy a well-played baseball game, and, most importantly, a clean first inning!
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.