Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Odds for Monday, August 1 (2022)
We may only have ten games on the slate today, but there is still plenty of value on the board regarding NRFIs. I’ve pinpointed two pairs of arms who have been tearing it up of late and each of them matching up is bad news for opposing lineups. So let’s find out who they are in today’s top NRFI plays of the slate.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers 8:05 pm ET
Tonight in Arlington, we have a matchup of two right-handers who hit their strides in July. Toeing the slab for the Rangers will be Jon Gray. Gray was nothing short of dominant in July. He had a 2.97 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP in five starts and struck out 37 batters in 30 innings. While first innings have been his bugaboo this season, tonight, he’ll get a break as the Orioles are dead last in first-inning runs per game. Now they have been doing more first-inning scoring of late, but with Gray due for positive regression in the first inning and the Orioles hitting well above their average early on, we may have the perfect storm for a clean top of the first.
Opposing Gray for the Baltimore is Spenser Watkins. When you look at Watkins’ underlying numbers, they are quite concerning as his baseball Savant page has far too many single-digit numbers on it. However, he’s been defying the numbers all season and his last month is proof. In July, Watkins made four starts and healed a 2.35 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP. His numbers overall are inflated a bit from a rough stretch in May, but otherwise, he’s had an ERA under 2.55. Just like Gray, first innings have not gone all that well for Watkins this season, but Texas ranks just 18th in first-inning runs per game. The Rangers have also had a big hole in the top of their order, with Corey Seager missing the past few games. If he’s out again tonight, this play only gets stronger as we need these two hot hands to continue their streaks for just one more inning.
Pick: NRFI -120
Los Angeles Dodger vs. San Francisco Giants 9:45 pm ET
One of the longest-standing rivalries in baseball is set to reignite this evening. However, there may not be many fireworks because of the men on the mound. Logan Webb is set to get the ball for the Giants, and he has been nothing short of fantastic this season. He enters with a 2.21 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP on the season. Webb is unique in this day in age as he is one of the best groundball pitchers in the game, but his stuff generates plenty of strikeouts. Just two weeks ago, he quieted this Dodger offense as he held them to only one run in six innings of work. Now, LA may lead the league in first-inning runs per game, but Webb has proven to be this team’s kryptonite. In 126 at-bats against Webb, this Dodger lineup is hitting just .230 with a .278 wOBA and an average launch angle of just 3.1 degrees. So expect Webb to make quick work of the Dodgers in the top of the first.
Toeing the slab in the bottom of the first will be Andrew Heaney. Heaney has already had multiple IL stints this season but has been dominant each time he’s touched the ball. He holds a 0.47 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in four starts this season and has yet to give up a run in the first inning. San Francisco is a team that’s had its fair share of troubles getting the bats going early as they rank 21st in first-inning runs per game. Despite that, the first inning will be no cakewalk for Heaney as he’s projected to face Slater, Flores, and Mercedes, who all hit lefties very well but aren’t elite hitters in general. So if Heaney can keep them off balance and utilize the pitcher-friendly ballpark behind him, he should be able to escape unscathed.
Pick: NRFI -120
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