Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Odds for Monday, August 8 (2022)
Our slate may be small on this Monday evening, but that does not mean there are fewer opportunities. I’ve pinpointed two NRFIs for tonight, and they will begin at the same time. So strap in as we dive into my top NRFIs of the slate.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics – 9:40 pm ET
On a small slate, this surprisingly may be the best matchup for an NRFI. Cole Irvin will be tasked with the top of the first, and he has been outstanding lately. He finished the month of July with a 1.85 ERA. Something clicker for Irvin this past month as he only allowed 19 hits and three walks over 34 innings pitched. In addition, he followed it up with a quality start against this same Angels lineup in his last start. Los Angeles has been a team to target as they rank just 16th in first-inning runs per game and lead the majors in strikeout rate. Irvin will also have a matchup edge as Ohtani and Walsh are both left-handed, and Irvin has held lefties to just a .211 batting average this season. With how hot Irvin’s been, the top of the first should be smooth sailing.
We get to pick on the worst offense in the majors for the bottom half of the inning. Oakland is dead last in team batting average and second to last in wOBA and wRC+. Although, they rank 24th in first-inning runs per game. Jose Suarez has quietly been fantastic in the first inning this season. Through 11 starts, he holds a 1.64 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. He’s also complied 52 at-bats against the current Oakland lineup and has held them to a .250 batting average with five extra-base hits and only three walks. So with Suarez likely not hurting himself and limiting damage, we have ourselves a great pairing to put up matching zeroes.
Pick: NFRI -130
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres – 9:40 pm ET
While this may seem like a matchup nightmare as the Giants generally hit lefties well and the Padres boast a star-studded top of the order, there are multiple edges that can work in our favor. Blake Snell is a great pitcher to back for the top half of the inning. He holds a 2.77 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in the first inning this season. He’s also stuck out 18 of the 50 batters he’s faced, giving him a 36 percent strikeout rate. The Giants may have quite a few righties who excel against left-handed pitching, but Snell has been slightly better against righties this year as his FIP is a half-run lower. Along with that, San Francisco is not a team that gets off to hot starts as they rank 23rd in first-inning runs per game, and they are even worse on the road.
San Diego’s top three may feature Juan Soto and Manny Machado. However, Giants starter Alex Wood actually has a good history against them. Soto is just two for eight with no extra-base hits, and Machado is also two for eight with three strikeouts. This revamped San Diego lineup has not gotten off to hot starts as they rank 21st in first-inning runs per game and are scoreless in the first in each of their last three games. Wood is in line to further their cold stretch as he holds 3.43 and 1.14 WHIP in the first inning, and he’s also struck 29 percent of the batters he’s faced. So while this NFRI may look daunting, the odds are much more in our favor than it may appear.
Pick: NFRI -115
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