Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Odds for Rangers vs. Tigers (6/17)
Let’s take a look at some No Runs First Inning prop bet odds and picks for today’s game: Rangers vs. Tigers.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Odds: Rangers vs. Tigers
Can we take a second to appreciate how terrific Tarik Skubal has been? It has been a difficult season for the Tigers, but Skubal has been the one shining ray of optimism. Per Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement (fWAR), the young lefty has been the second-most valuable pitcher in all of baseball, ranking near the top of the league in skill interactive ERA (2.95 SIERA) and K-BB (23.2%). You couldn’t script a better start of the season for him.
The best part? This is the type of high-end production we should expect from Skubal moving forward. See, in his rookie season, he flashed brilliance (3.92 SIERA), but was too often bit by the home run bug. To combat this, he has dramatically decreased his fastball usage (42.8% to 27.7%), replacing it with more sliders and sinkers. As a result, he is suddenly inducing a lot more ground balls (48.9%), which appears to be the finishing piece to an exciting skill set. Whether it’s striking batters out, inducing ground balls or not walking batters, he can do it all, and that should continue against an offense in the bottom 10 in weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+).
Meanwhile, Rangers starter Jon Gray (3.83 SIERA) has also been very productive this season and perhaps has more in the tank after possessing his highest velocity (96.3 MPH) in a start last weekend. The Tigers currently are scoring the fewest runs per game since 1947, per Jay Jaffe of Fangraphs, and also are the league’s worst offense in wRC+, isolated power (ISO) and walk rate.
Two productive pitchers, two bottom 10 offenses and a ballpark that suppresses home runs the most, per Baseball Savant; there isn’t one factor that isn’t pointing to the NRFI here. It’s very rare for the perfect pick to come around, and, in sports betting, there is no such thing as a lock. However, this would appear to be as close as it gets.
Bet: TEX at DET NRFI (-130 on FanDuel)
Best Player Prop Bet Rankings for Rangers vs. Tigers
What are Player Props?
Player props refer to wagers that bettors can make based on player performance in a specific game. The majority of player props are built around the most common statistical benchmarks for a specific sport such as yards and touchdowns in football. Most player props are straight over/under plays that open at or near -110 and are adjusted based on where the money lands.
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