Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Odds for Wednesday, August 17 (2022)
We swept the board yesterday, and that put us at 4-1 on NRFI for the week. Tonight, the pitching is not at the caliber it has been earlier in the week, but what that does is create value so that we are not paying a ton of juice. Let’s stay hot with my top two NRFI plays of the slate.
Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – 7:05 pm ET
This matchup on the mound is a contrast of old versus you as rookie Roansy Contreras will be making his first start since July 7th. Prior to his injury, Contreras was impressive through his first nine career starts. As a result, he’ll come into this matchup with a 3.78 ERA while averaging a strikeout per inning. However, what was even more impressive was his dominance in the first inning. Contreras has not allowed a run, has a 0.89 WHIP, and has a 31 percent strikeout rate in the first inning this year. However, he’ll need to return to form in a hurry as the Red Sox are fifth in first-inning runs per game on the road.
The wily veteran Rich Hill will get the assignment for the bottom of the first. The 42-year-old Hill has had his ups and downs this season as he enters this outing with a 4.75 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. His numbers in the first inning through 17 starts are very similar, but his WHIP is considerably lower, so there may be some positive regression on the way. If the numbers are not telling, then the matchup certainly helps. Pittsburgh is dead last in first-inning runs per game at home this year. The advantages outweigh the concerns in this NRFI, and the odds here should be a bit higher.
Pick: NRFI -110
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers – 8:10 pm ET
The NRFI will hinge on the top of the first as lefty Eric Lauer will go through the gauntlet at the top of the Dodgers order. Facing Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, and Freddie Freeman is certainly not ideal, but Lauer has faired well in the first inning this season as he holds a 3.00 ERA and 1.19 WHIP through 21 starts. In addition, the top of the Dodgers order is due to regress against him. Mookie Betts is two for six with an xBA of .264. Trea Turner is five for ten with an xBA of .329, and Freddie Freeman is two for four with an xBA of .367. Trea Turner is the one to watch out for as two of his five hits off Lauer have been homers.
The other side of this equation should be much smoother sailing as Tony Gonsolin will get the ball for Los Angeles. Gonsolin has had a breakout campaign as he enters this start with a 14-1 record, a 2.24 ERA, and a 0.89 WHIP. It should be no surprise that he’s also been dominant in the first inning this year. Through 21 starts, Gonsolins holds a matching ERA and WHIP with both at 0.86, as he’s only allowed two runs in the first inning all year. Additionally, he should have no issue handling the lefties such as Christian Yelich and Rowdy Tellez, as his splitter has been a devastating weapon this season.
Pick: NRFI -104
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