Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Odds for Wednesday, June 1st (2022)
Can you believe it’s already June? With almost two months of the season in the past, it’s about time where we start paying more attention to how teams are performing. At some point, a gap in the standings becomes extremely difficult to overcome, and, now, the intensity of each game starts picking up. Hey, that only adds to that excitement!
There are many ways to bet on a baseball game. One of the most exciting ways, now, are No Run First Inning Bets (NRFI). Really, it's as simple as it sounds; you can bet on whether a run will be scored by either team in the first inning. Especially at a time when scoring is at an all-time low, it's more likely than not that a run is not scored, leading to prices being juiced towards the "under" taking place. Even with that, the most logical bets are usually to side with the under, as you'll see here!
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers
As things stand, there is already a ten-game difference between these two teams, and it’s crazy to think that they were only separated by two games on their preseason win total.
Fortunately for the Tigers, they have the right man on the mound to pull up the upset. In fact, during what has been as disappointing of a season as could be imagined, Tarik Skubal has been one of the lone bright spots. After showing promise in his rookie year, the 25-year-old put it all together in his second season, posting a 2.91 skill interactive ERA (SIERA) and 22.7% K-BB in nine starts.
The best part? This appears to be mostly sustainable. By throwing fewer four-seam fastballs and more sliders+sinkers, he’s helped limit his main issue, home runs, while his slider is shaper than ever (3 MPH harder) and his changeup has double the vertical drop as before. Add it all together, and you have a complete five-pitch mix that he commands exceptionally well. With Carlos Correa placed on the injured list, the Twins’ top of the lineup isn’t as strong as usual, while Skubal has been elite (34.6% K, 33.3% K-BB) the first time through the order so far this year, a trend that was also true in 2021.
The Tigers, meanwhile, both based on weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) and runs scored, have been the worst-performing offense this season, and still remain without Austin Meadows at the top of their lineup. That is great news for Twins starter Bailey Ober, who has been very impressive since debuting in 2021 with a 3.90 SIERA and 19.2% K-BB. At this point, there aren’t many pitchers not to trust against Detroit, and Ober, who doesn’t walk hitters and misses bats, certainly is trustworthy.
Comerica Park, meanwhile, suppresses home runs more than any stadium, per Baseball Savant park factors. Since that would be the main concern with both of these pitchers, this is quite significant and is simply another of many variables pointing to no runs being scored in the first inning. It almost feels too good to be true!
San Diego Padres at St.Louis Cardinals
There’s nothing better than a matchup between two playoff contenders, which we’re getting here. Although the Padres (30-19) have had a productive season up to this point, they’re relying a lot on success on one-run games, and as they saw Tuesday night, that isn’t something you want to be banking on. Suddenly, they’re looking to avoid a series sweep here, though they’re in good position to do so.
Although starter Yu Darvish isn’t missing bats (20.7% K) like he normally does, there isn’t any reason that should remain the case. In fact, based on Eno Sarris’ predictive stuff+ model, Darvish’s arsenal (121.4 stuff+) actually rates out much better than last year (111.7 stuff+), while he continues to not walk hitters (6.1%) and is benefitting from the league-wide decreased home run rates. It also helps that, by Outs Above Average (OAA), the Padres have been the best defense in all of baseball, which is particularly notable against a Cardinals team that makes a lot of contact.
Did you know that San Diego is a bottom-ten team based on wRC+? With the lowest barrel rate in baseball, they certainly are not hitting for any sort of power. Dakota Hudson’s K-BB numbers (1.1% K-BB) aren’t exactly inspiring, but he does induce an extraordinary amount of ground balls (59%), and also benefits greatly from playing behind a strong infield defense and in a home stadium with the third-lowest park factor in all of baseball, per Baseball Savant. Thus, it’s a situation with a poor-performing offense on one side and a very talented pitcher on the other in a very pitcher-friendly park. That’s the type of situation to bet on.
Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers
The Rangers are definitely sad to see the calendar turn to June, who went 17-10 in the month of May, and now have a positive run differential for the season. In fact, they’ve taken the first two games of this series from the Rays, and, after spending a lot of money in free agency, will now look to take the series with a win today.
The only major concern for the Rangers this season? A rotation that ranks in the bottom-15 in Wins Above Replacement and ERA. As they look for that to improve, they’ll send out their one major free-agent pitching acquisition, Jon Gray, to tighten the ship. On the surface, with a 5.56 ERA, it’s been a rough year for Gray, but his 4.02 SIERA points to some of the problems he has had in terms of poor luck with runners on base (just a 61.9% left-on-base rate), while his 11.3% swinging-strike rate indicates he should be striking out more hitters than he currently is.
Plus, with Wander Franco on the injured list, the Rays’ top of the lineup isn’t as difficult, nor does it possess much power at the top with Kevin Kiermaier and Yandy Diaz. If the top of the first goes smoothly, too, we get to lean on Jeffrey Springs, which is a bet to make. Since moving into the rotation, the 29-year-old possesses a very impressive 20.6% K-BB ratio and 3.22 SIERA, and rates out tremendously in Eno Sarris’ pitching+ model (108.2). Even as Texas’ lineup heats up, this is a pitcher you want to be siding with right now. The price is high, but it still is lower than it probably should be with both starting pitchers a bit undervalued, there is value in expecting no run to be scored in the first inning.
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