Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Odds for Wednesday, May 11th (2022)
We have our first no-hitter of the season, thanks to Reid Detmers! Sorry Mets fans, but combined no-hitters just don’t sit the same! To toss a no-hitter at just 22 years old is quite impressive, and, hopefully, this is the something the young lefty can build upon. Regardless, what a special moment. There are few in-game accomplishments more fun to watch than a no-hitter, especially if you allow just one base runner.
Anyways, let’s shift back our focus today. There are many ways to bet on a baseball game. One of the most exciting ways, now, is No Run First Inning Bets (NRFI). Really, it's as simple as it sounds. You can bet on whether a run will be scored by either team in the first inning. Especially at a time when scoring is at an all-time low, it's more likely than not that a run is not scored, leading to prices being juiced towards the "under" taking place. Even with that, the most logical bets are usually to side with the under, as you'll see here!
Check out our No Runs First Inning consensus odds for today >>
Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks
Don’t look now, but, through the first month of the season, the Diamondbacks are now three games above .500. Considering this is a team that won just 52 games last season, that is quite surprising. That being said, they still have the sixth-lowest weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) in baseball, and rank in the bottom-ten in runs scored. In fact, both of these offenses are below-average in terms of runs scored.
Plus, this is a very nice pitching matchup in terms of the under happening. While Marlins starter Sandy Alcántara hasn’t quite taken the next step in terms of striking batters out (21.4% K), he’s still been effective with a 3.81 skill interactive ERA (SIERA), excluding his first start of the season, and still induces plenty of ground balls (49%). Plus, after facing a run of teams (Cardinals, Nationals, Mariners, Giants, Padres) with lower than league average strikeout rates, perhaps facing a Diamondbacks team with the league’s 4th highest-strikeout rate. Either way, I’ll take my chances with a pitcher seen as an emerging ace just one year ago against one of the worst offenses in baseball.
We highlighted Merrill Kelly last week as an undervalued pitcher to target in NRFI bets, and the same points apply here. For the season, the Dbacks starter has been quite impressive, posting a 3.42 SIERA and 16.9% K-BB ratio through 37 innings, and it certainly appears to be sustainable. So far, his pitch mix, adding more drop to his changeup, which has been very effective with a 30.4% whiff rate; he’s throwing it, along with his cutter, more often, which has played a role in him to inducing more chases, and more whiffs overall.
While Marlins leadoff hitter Jazz Chisholm has produced tremendously this season, the same cannot be said for Jesus Aguilar and Jorge Soler behind him, while Joey Wendle projects to be a below-average offensive producer by all major projection systems. I will gladly trust these two reliable pitchers against two middling top of the orders, especially in a ballpark that generally suppresses home runs. How the Marlins aren’t favored to win this game is another question, but as for the NRFI here, bet on no runs being scored in the first inning.
Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants
Right now, there isn’t a division on par with what the NL West had done thus far- every team is over .500. Now, we can talk about the fact that there is a sizable gap between these two teams, with San Francisco outscoring them 17-7 in the first two games, but let us enjoy that fact while it lasts.
Anytime you can bet an NRFI at a reasonable price at Oracle Park, the hardest ballpark to hit a home run in, per Baseball Savant, it is too good of an opportunity to pass up. Without Kris Bryant in the lineup, Colorado has struggled mightily offensively, and, as expected, they have struggled mightily (bottom-ten in wRC+) on the road this season; the Rockies not performing well on the road tend to go together like spaghetti and meatballs, and this is a trend that should continue to be the case.
This is great news for Giants starter Alex Cobb, who has been incredibly impressive with a 31.9% strikeout rate and 2.30 SIERA, while he’s inducing an absurd (70.7%) amount of ground balls right now. The combination of his velocity being up 2 MPH and him increasing the usage of his splitter thus far has allowed him to reach a new level with the Giants, and he’s set up to continue that success against the Rockies lineup.
On the surface, Rockies starter Chad Kuhl’s 19.7% strikeout rate isn’t impressive, but with a 13.4% swinging-strike rate, there is positive regression coming for him. He’s also faced more lefties than righties and isn’t afraid to throw his slider, which is performing at an exceptional level (51.8%), to them, so facing lefties at the top of San Francisco’s lineup won’t be an issue. There is some risk here, but with the likelihood that Cobb gets through his half of the inning and with Kuhl is missing bats and now in a favorable ballpark, I recommend taking a leap of faith in him here.
Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners
With Logan Gilbert and George Kirby fronting the Mariners rotation for the years to come, along with a lot of talented young position players, the future looks very bright in Seattle. Believe it or not, but in spite of a 3.53 SIERA, we haven’t seen the best of Gilbert this season.
Last season, Gilbert’s slider (38.2% whiff) and changeup (51.9% whiff) were absolutely dominant, and he’s yet to replicate that level of success. That being said, it’s only a matter of time before he induces less contact outside the zone (70.4%), which is going to allow him to miss more bats and continue to flourish. Pitching a tremendously favorably ballpark as a low WHIP pitcher due to his ability to limit walks and induce a lot of weekly-hit fly balls, he’s a pitcher to count on here.
The main mystery here is with Phillies starter Bailey Falter, but I encourage you to have faith. In 30.2 innings in Triple-A last season, the 25-year-old posted an absurd 36.7% strikeout rate and continued to flourish (3.44) SIERA in a multi-inning relief role last year. As someone who generates 7.5 feet of extension, his arsenal is able to play up, and he profiles as an uncomfortable pitcher to face. The deception he presents can generally be difficult for a team that hasn’t faced him before.
The Mariners, who feature lefties such as Adam Frazier, JP Crawford, and Jesse Winker at the top of their lineup, definitely take a hit facing a left-handed pitcher. That is another advantage for Falter, who may not go long into this game, but will most likely be effective at least one time through the order. While the price isn’t inflated due to some concerns about him being able to hold down Seattle’s offense, take advantage! Both from a pitching and ballpark standpoint, betting on no runs being scored in the first inning here would appear to be quite wise.
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