Top MLB Parlay Odds & Picks for Friday, May 13 (2022)
The three games we have on the slate we like for different reasons. In two of these games, we like the pitching matchup, so we’ll analyze that aspect, while the other we love for the opposite reason. It may be Friday the 13th, but with these bets, you’ll have a lucky day.
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel)
Milwaukee Brewers (-136) vs. Miami Marlins (+116) O/U 6.5
(First Pitch 6:36 p.m. ET)
The Brewers were rising up the elevator of greatness by winning nine of ten, and then someone cut the cable because they have now lost four of their last five. The offense is playing well as they are coming in scoring 21 runs in their last three games, including an 11-run effort against Cincinnati, so we’ll see if they can take that into this series.
Corbin Burnes is the reigning NL Cy Young winner, and he’s making a case for back-to-back as he has a 1.86 ERA, is third with 50 strikeouts, and leads the league with a 0.83 WHIP. The drastic change in the movement of his cutter and curveball has made a huge difference as batters are hitting just .154 off of those pitches. His offense has failed him in his last two starts as he’s 0-2, allowing just three earned in 13 innings, but only had two runs of support in those games.
We could expect more of the same with Marlins Pablo Lopez on the mound. He’s been even better than Burnes, as his 1.00 ERA is second in the league and is at the top in WAR (1.9) among all starters. He’s been getting great movement on his pitches, especially the changeup that gets him a 41% whiff rate.
Burnes’ impressive 11.6 strikeouts per nine will work against a Marlins offense that’s 21st in strikeouts per game (8.90). Lopez won’t ring up the K’s like Burnes, but he’ll keep the ball down and not allow Milwaukee to string together hits. The 6.5 for the whole game is low to go after and when the bullpens come in could change the course of this game. Let’s focus on Burnes vs. Lopez and the Brewers the advantage in that matchup
Leg 1: Brewers -0.5 first half runline
Cincinnati Reds (-102) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (-116) O/U 8
(First Pitch 6:41 p.m. ET)
The Reds and Pirates already know their seasons are done in early October. Pittsburgh is a modest 13-17 this season, but Cincy at 8-24 is projected to lose 126 games which would be a record.
While you can have confidence in betting against the Reds, attacking the total has paid out even better. The Reds have been smashing the over recently as it has hit in 14 of their last 16 games.
Looking at this pitching matchup should have you even more confident.
The Pirates Mitch Kelly comes into this game at 0-4 with a 6.11 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. He doesn’t keep you on your toes as he throws primarily 4-seamers, and their lack of movement allows easy timing and it’s getting crushed as hitters are batting .323 with a .490 slugging percentage off the pitch.
Tyler Mahle isn’t any better, with a 6.47 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. When his splitter is sharp, he’s tough to hit, but he hasn’t been able to get ahead in the count. While he’s trying to use that pitch down and away to righties, he’s instead left it up for hard contact.
The Reds have been able to score runs easily as they have five runs in six of their last seven, but the pitching has been giving it right back as they’ve allowed five or more in 21 of 31 games this season. Even after Mahle and Kelly, the Reds have the worst bullpen ERA (5.16) and the Pirates are 26th (4.34). Don’t be scared by the high total.
Leg 2: Over 8
New York Yankees (-168) vs. Chicago White Sox (+142) O/U 7.5
(First Pitch 8:11 p.m. ET)
The Yankees and White Sox decided to have a run parade with 22 on Thursday night. It will be a very different scenario as we have a pretty good pitching matchup in Game 2 of this series.
Vince Velasquez had a rough start to his 2022 with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.83 WHIP in his first two appearances, but he has adjusted by allowing just one earned run in his last ten innings. He’s done better moving up and down the zone with elevating the fastball and dropping the hammer with the curveball and slider.
He comes in with a good history against some of the Yankees’ top brass including Giancarlo Stanton (.143 in 18 AB), DJ LeMahieu (.250 in 17 AB), and Aaron Judge (1-for-6).
Gerritt Cole has almost mirrored Velasquez in 2022 as he had a 6.35 ERA in his three first starts and now has a 0.47 ERA in his last three. He’s made the adjustment of getting the first pitch strike and being able to work ahead in the count has allowed him to expand his arsenal and that’s why he has 25 strikeouts in his last 19 innings.
He also has a great history against this White Sox roster as collectively, they’re batting .239 with Yasmani Grandal hitting .118 and A.J. Pollock at .188.
In both of these pitchers’ last two starts, the total has gone under. At 7.5, this is a no-brainer.
Leg 3: Under 7.5
Total parlay odds on FanDuel: +690
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