Top NASCAR Betting Picks for the Busch Clash at Daytona
The Super Bowl has come and gone, but NASCAR fans know that means the Daytona 500 is fast approaching. The Great American Race will get underway this Sunday, but we have another event before it: the Busch Clash at Daytona.
Ever since 1979, NASCAR has begun its season with the invitation-only exhibition event. To qualify for this year’s Clash, a driver must have done one of the following the year before: qualified on the pole, made it into the playoffs, won a race, or won a stage. Exceptions are made for drivers who had previously won a Busch Clash and Daytona 500 — or those who had previously qualified on the pole for the Daytona 500 — as those drivers must have only raced full-time the year before to earn eligibility.
Here are the best bets for Tuesday’s Busch Clash, which will run on Tuesday night at the Daytona Road Course.
Get a sign-up bonus up to $1,000 at DraftKings Sportsbook >>
Isaiah’s Best Bets: Busch Clash at Daytona
#1. Top Chevrolet Car: Chase Elliott (-250)
The juice is stacked against bettors on this one, but that’s because of Elliott’s dominance at road courses. Elliott has won all of his last four road course events, a streak that dates back to the August 2019 race at Watkins Glen. As a result, Elliott has to be the favorite to win, and this line pits him against fewer competitors.
To cash this bet, Elliott will have to beat only seven other drivers: Kurt Busch, Austin Dillon, Tyler Reddick, William Byron, Erik Jones, Ricky Stenhouse, and Alex Bowman. Only one of those drivers, Kurt Busch, has ever won at a road course in the Cup Series, and he has done so only once.
Unfortunately, we don’t have much track-specific data to use for this event, which usually informs my NASCAR bets. Why? The Cup Series has only raced at the Daytona Road Course once. However, the one-race sample supports this play, as Elliott won it. Only one other active Chevrolet driver posted a top-10 result.
#2. To Finish Top-Three: Martin Truex Jr. (-115)
As much as I love Elliott here, Truex should compete for the win on Tuesday night. Despite his underwhelming 2020, Truex still finished third at the Daytona Road Course last year, and he was one of three drivers to lead double-digit laps.
Truex is the only active driver with a road course resume comparable to Elliott’s. He has a better average finish (4.6) than Elliott (6.5) at road courses over the last three seasons, and he won two of the eight events that Elliott didn’t. He ranks second in driver rating, too, and he and Elliott have a 22-point gap over the next-best driver, Kevin Harvick.
Truex has finished top-three in five of his last eight road course events. While Elliott has five wins, those are also his only top-threes, and his line is set at a much less appealing -235.
#3. Top Ford Car: Joey Logano (+450)
I’m pretty confident in my first two bets, so I’ll take a longshot line here to round things out.
Logano had a quietly good season on road courses last year — he posted top-10 results in both events, and he finished as the top Ford at the Charlotte Roval. Only two Ford drivers finished ahead of him at the Daytona Road Course: Chris Buescher and Clint Bowyer (retired). He had the best average driver rating among the Ford stable at road courses last year, too.
Despite these facts, Logano has just the fourth-best among Ford’s nine entries. He’s behind Kevin Harvick (+275), Ryan Blaney (+400), and Brad Keselowski (+400). Sure, Logano may not have had the most impressive career at road courses, but his recent form does point to value on this line.
Best Bets to Win the Busch Clash
Favorite: Chase Elliott (+175)
You can’t bet against Elliott at a road course. With five road course wins, he’s already tied for the seventh-most of all time! Elliott has the highest win rate (41.7%) among all active drivers; that rate ranks first all-time among drivers with double-digit starts at road courses.
Elliott’s line should be closer to even. I don’t feature winners in my Best Bets section, but if I were ever going to break that rule, it would be for this line.
Dark Horse: William Byron (+1800)
Byron may have never won at a road course, but he tied with Elliott for the most laps led at the Charlotte Roval last year. He also finished with the race’s third-best driver rating. He looked good at the Daytona Road Course, too, as he finished eighth with the fourth-best driver rating.
Elliott should get the win, but if something knocks him out of the race, Byron could sneak by for the win on Tuesday night.
Get a sign-up bonus up to $1,000 at DraftKings Sportsbook >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.