Daytona 500 Top Betting Picks (2021 NASCAR)
The green flag will wave on the Daytona 500 tomorrow afternoon, and if you’re looking to get some skin in the game, I’m here to highlight the best bets you can place on tomorrow’s Great American Race.
Do note that races on NASCAR’s two Superspeedway tracks — Daytona and Talladega — can get quite unpredictable. Last year, I featured Joey Logano, Aric Almirola, and Ryan Newman in my favorite picks section. All three drivers had strong cars and led laps in the race. Newman even had the lead on the last lap — until he crashed, flipped, and finished ninth.
Statistics can only get you so far in Superspeedway betting, so it’s not for the faint of heart. You’ll need a healthy serving of luck on race day to cash your tickets.
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Isaiah’s Best Bets: Daytona 500
#1. Head-to-Head: Joey Logano (-118 at FOX Bet) vs. Kevin Harvick
Logano is NASCAR’s best Superspeedway racer. Over the last three seasons, Logano has the best average driver rating at these tracks (100.6) by a wide margin. The next-best driver, Ryan Blaney, sits more than seven points behind him (93.1). Only three drivers have ratings above 85: Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Alex Bowman, and Chase Elliott.
To be fair, Logano has suffered from bad luck at these tracks. He only has one win over that span despite also having led the most laps. Logano has even led at least one lap in every points-paying Superspeedway race since the start of 2019.
Fortunately, bad luck matters less when you’re betting on a head-to-head. You just need your driver to make it further in the race than one opponent, so you only have to care about their exact finishing position as it relates to that benchmark.
Logano’s average finish at Superspeedways over the last three seasons (15.8) is much better than Harvick’s (20.6). Logano has more wins, top 5s, and top 10s than Harvick at these tracks. And while Logano has been better at Talladega than at Daytona, his average finish at Daytona (20.8) is still better than Harvick’s (21.8).
#2. Manufacturer of Winning Car: Ford (+150 at BetMGM)
Fords have been the best manufacturer at Superspeedway tracks over the last few years. Ford drivers only won one of the Superspeedway races last season, but if not for a last-lap mishap in the Daytona 500, they would have won half.
Ford controlled four of the top-5 positions in last year’s Daytona 500. Ford drivers led the most laps in three of the four Superspeedway races last season, too. While the finishes weren’t always there, Ford drivers consistently ran at the front of the field.
I also like this line because several of the best Superspeedway racers drive Fords. The drivers with the two highest average Superspeedway driver ratings drive Fords, and three of the drivers with the highest average finishes at Superspeedways do, too. And of DraftKings Sportsbook’s top eight drivers (in terms of odds to win Sunday’s race), five drive Fords.
#3. Top 10: Bubba Wallace (+125 at FOX Bet)
I like Wallace’s chances at Daytona this year. Wallace has the fifth-best average finish at Daytona among entered drivers (14.8), and he has two top-10s here in seven attempts. Wallace looked good in his Daytona Duel, too, as he nearly won it on the last lap.
Because we haven’t seen much of Wallace in competitive equipment, posted betting lines may underestimate him. If we assume that 23XI Racing’s cars are roughly equivalent to what Toyota’s other one-car team, Leavine Family Racing (LFR), fielded last year, Wallace should contend for a strong result. Christopher Bell led laps in half of his Superspeedway races for LFR last year.
Top Bets to Win: Daytona 500
Favorite: Joey Logano (+1200 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
I expect Logano’s luck to turn around this weekend. He should not only finish ahead of Kevin Harvick, but he should also win this race outright. He should arguably have more Superspeedway wins at this point due to his strong average driver rating, and I suspect that regression will hand him a win on Sunday afternoon.
Logano has one Daytona 500 victory under his belt, which came in 2015. If he can keep his car clean and avoid accidents, he should take the checkered flag in the lead on Sunday.
Runner-Up: Kyle Busch (+1400 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kyle Busch has never won a Daytona 500. He had a terrible season last year, too, so it might surprise you to see his name here. But I’m optimistic about Busch’s ability to turn things around this year, and that could begin with a Daytona 500 victory.
While their limited car count makes pack racing at Superspeedways difficult for Toyotas, Busch, Martin Truex Jr., and Bubba Wallace looked strong in their Daytona Duel. The Toyota teammates had a shot at a one-two-three finish had they not gotten broken up.
Busch has a new crew chief this season, Ben Beshore, and he has worked with Busch before. The duo combined for four Xfinity Series wins in seven starts during the 2019 season. Beshore worked with Harrison Burton during 2020, and he helped the young driver win four races.
Dark Horse: Chris Buescher (+5000 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Daytona is one of Chris Buescher’s best tracks. His average finish here over his last six races (12.7) ranks second-best among entered drivers; only Denny Hamlin (12) boasts a higher average result.
Buescher posted top 10s in both of his Daytona races last year, including a third-place finish in the Daytona 500. He has proven that he can keep his car clean, so if the cards fall the right way for him on the last lap, he could end up in victory lane. He also offers much more betting value than some other popular dark horses, like Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+2500) and Bubba Wallace (+1600).
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.