Top NASCAR Betting Picks for the O’Reilly Auto Parts 253 at the Daytona Road Course
Another Daytona 500, another strong bet busted on the last lap. I took Ryan Newman: Top 5 in 2020, and I had Joey Logano over Kevin Harvick (and to win the whole race) this year. That’s a tough beat, but that’s what you get into when betting on a Superspeedway race.
Fortunately, this weekend’s event at the Daytona Road Course should be a bit more predictable. Although NASCAR has only run a single points-paying event here, the Busch Clash ran on the road course less than two weeks ago. That race should help us gauge who to target this weekend.
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Isaiah’s Best Bets: Daytona Road Course
After a 1-2 showing at Daytona, Isaiah’s best bets are 3-3 on the season.
#1. Top 3: Chase Elliott (+100 at FOX Bet)
You can’t bet against Elliott at a road course, especially not this one. Elliott won the inaugural race at the Daytona Road Course last season, and he just about won NASCAR’s second event at the track, last week’s Busch Clash.
There’s a bit more to Elliott’s road course dominance than his performance here, however. He has won each of his last four points-paying events on road courses, a streak that dates back to the August 2019 race at Watkins Glen.
In fact, the sportsbooks agree that this is a good bet, too. DraftKings has this line set at -152, and FOX Bet would have it at -154 if not for a special that they’re running this weekend. Make sure to select “Race Winner,†not “Top 3†when selecting this line, as the boosted odds are only found on the “Race Winner†page.
#2. Head-to-Head: Joey Logano (-110 at FOX Bet) vs. Kevin Harvick
Am I seriously going back to the well with Logano bets? Yep. Logano bested Harvick in the Busch Clash — he finished in third, while Harvick finished 15th — and he also beat him in last season’s race at this track.
Harvick just hasn’t looked good here yet. He started on the pole last year but failed to lead a lap and finished a dismal 17th. And while Logano hasn’t always been solid at road courses, he’s been strong at them recently.
Logano finished inside the top 10 in both of last year’s road course races, and he topped Harvick in both events. He had the best average driver rating out of the Ford stable at road courses last year, too. Yet this line sits at just -110 — that screams value to me.
#3. Best Finish in Group: Michael McDowell (+250 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Hold on. I know that McDowell just won the Daytona 500, and he could not possibly be subject to more hype than what he’s getting right now. But this prop pits him against just four drivers: Christopher Bell (+230), Cole Custer (+250), and Erik Jones (+260), none of whom seem especially threatening.
McDowell finished ahead of the three of them in last year’s race at the Daytona Road Course. He was the only one of the four to post a top 10 result, and he even ended up with the best driver rating (85.7) of the group.
Since that race, Jones has lost his ride at Joe Gibbs Racing. Christopher Bell replaced him, but Bell couldn’t finish close to McDowell in decent equipment last year, and his driver rating (71.5) sat far below McDowell’s. Custer (70.5) finished as the worst of the bunch.
McDowell has quietly been one of NASCAR’s better road course racers for a while now, and he should follow up his surprise Daytona 500 win with another strong performance.
Alternative bet: McDowell Top 10 (+225 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Top Bets to Win: Daytona Road Course
Favorite: Chase Elliott (+200 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
At just 25 years old, Elliott already ranks as one of NASCAR’s winningest drivers on road courses. His five wins mean that he’s tied for the seventh-most of all time, and he has the highest win rate (41.7%) at these tracks of all active drivers.
That win rate points to significant value against Elliott’s implied odds, which are just 33.3%. Of course, circumstances outside of Elliott’s control can make life more difficult for the defending winner on Sunday, but this is a smart bet nonetheless.
Runner-Up: Martin Truex Jr. (+480 at FOX Bet)
Truex is no Chase Elliott, but he’s NASCAR’s second-best driver on road courses at the moment. He nearly won the Busch Clash, and he finished third at the Daytona Road Course last year. He even led double-digit laps in the event.
As I wrote in my Busch Clash article, only Truex can really compete with Elliott at these tracks. He is the only driver with a better average finish (4.6) than Elliott (6.5) on road courses over the last three seasons.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.