Top NASCAR Futures Bets: 2021 Championship Winner
The green flag will wave on the Daytona 500 this Sunday, and the Great American race will begin the battle for the 2021 NASCAR Championship. Using DraftKings Sportsbook, I’ve identified three drivers to target on the futures market for the championship, and I’m quite bullish on Kyle Busch.
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Betting Odds: 2021 NASCAR Championship
Best Bet to Win the 2021 NASCAR Championship
Isaiah’s Favorite: Kyle Busch (+700)
Yes, Kyle Busch had a disappointing 2020 campaign. He won just one race, his fewest since 2014. His average finish (13.8) was also the worst it had been since that year.
With Busch’s 2020 stats mirroring his 2014 performance, I think that 2021 could mirror 2015 — the year that of Busch’s first championship win. He won five races that year, and even though a nasty injury at Daytona in February kept him out of the car until May, he locked himself into the playoffs with four regular-season wins. He won the season finale at Homestead, too.
But that comparison isn’t the best argument for Kyle Busch. Instead, it’s his performance at the season-ending track, Phoenix Raceway. Since NASCAR’s season finale pits the last four drivers against each other in a winner-take-all battle for the championship, a true championship contender needs to have a strong resume at that track.
Even though some call Kevin Harvick the “King of Phoenix†or the “Cactus King,†he hasn’t won a race on the track’s new configuration. Worse, he failed to lead a single lap in two of the five events. Harvick’s average driver rating since reconfiguration sits at just 108.9.
Busch actually has a better average driver rating at post-reconfiguration Phoenix: 123.5. He has finished with a better rating than Harvick in four of the five events, and his average finish (3.6) is also a good deal better than Harvick’s (5.6). Busch has finished outside the top-three just once; Harvick has finished inside the top-three only once.
If he can make it to the Championship 4, Kyle Busch should capture his third-career title this season.
Alternative Bets to Win the 2021 NASCAR Championship
Isaiah’s Runner-Up: Chase Elliott (+550)
I have a lot of faith in the betting co-favorite and defending champion, Chase Elliott. The new 2021 schedule benefits him significantly — he is currently the sport’s best performer on road courses, so with six of them in the regular season, he should have no problem piling up enough playoff points to coast into the Championship 4.
My main concern with Elliott is streakiness. He happened to get hot at the right time last season and win the championship, but he struggled mightily in the summer. After winning the second Charlotte race in May, he won no points-paying races from June to mid-August. He failed to win at an oval again until November, when he won at Martinsville and Phoenix in quick succession.
Since there is only one road course event in the playoffs, Elliott may need to accumulate playoff points in the regular season if he wants to qualify for the Championship 4 again.
If Elliott can last that long, he is one of the better drivers at post-reconfiguration Phoenix. He has led laps in three of the five events, including both races last season, and his average driver rating (106.4) isn’t far below Harvick’s.
Dark Horse: Ryan Blaney (+1200)
Bad Luck Blaney could steal this year’s championship if he can finish races. He has only ever won four times, but he looked like the class of the field at one point last year. He even topped the NASCAR power rankings after the first Talladega race.
Unfortunately, Blaney’s hot start didn’t translate into much success in the final points standings, as he finished just ninth. He did so despite finishing seventh among full-time drivers in average driver rating (96.3), which supports the bad luck narrative surrounding him.
I like Blaney this season because of his adaptability. He won NASCAR’s first race at the Charlotte Roval, and after a lackluster performance in the debut of the Daytona Road Course last year, he almost won the Busch Clash.
Blaney should benefit from the addition of several road courses to this year’s schedule, but he isn’t just a road course ringer. He proved last year that he can also dominate at a Superspeedway, and he has won at every track type (road course, intermediate, short, Superspeedway) in either the Cup or Xfinity series.
He may still have a lot to prove in the NASCAR Cup Series, but at this time last year, Chase Elliott had six total wins and championship odds of just +1100. The talented Penske driver can make a deep playoff run this season; he just needs to start turning his luck around.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.