Top NBA Betting Pick for Sunday, October 11th
The NBA playoffs have been quite the treat. The bubble has provided us with some tremendous basketball and the players, the NBAPA, Adam Silver, and the organizations involved all need to be commended for providing a virus-free environment for high-level basketball to take place. We have seen new stars born, new superstars cemented, and have also seen epic collapses.
The NBA Finals were more competitive than the 3-1 series lead the Lakers held would have suggested, and the Miami Heat proved it in Game 5 by avoiding the gentleman’s sweep thanks to an elite effort from Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat. Anthony Davis emerged from the game with an aggravation of a foot injury, something that could play a role in Game 6. Miami is going to need to be cleaner to win tonight, but even on a Sunday full of exciting NFL action, they have made this a series worth at least flipping the channel for.
One way or another, we will be witnessing history tonight. Either Anthony Davis wins his first NBA title or Jimmy Butler cements his name not just as a superstar, but as one of the elite playoff performers in recent memory. It is going to be a fun one.
Here is my top NBA betting play for October 11th, 2020. You can also check out our daily NBA consensus game odds here.
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Duncan Robinson over 13.5 (-120)
- Averaged 13.5 points per game during the season
- Averaging 11.8 points per game in the playoffs
- Averaging 13 points per game during this series
- Scored 14 or more points in each of his last two games
This is my first Duncan Robinson prop of the season. While Tyler Herro has jacked up shots trying to be the player that drained 37 points in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals, it is Duncan Robinson who has emerged as the X-factor over the last two contests. Robinson has averaged just 11.8 points per game during the playoffs, but that is due to disappearing acts like he pulled in Game 1 of this series when he took just three shots from the floor despite playing 27 minutes.
In fact, his 13 point per game average from this series jumps to 16.25 points per contest if we eliminate that game. Robinson has scored at least 14 points in each of his last two games, scoring 13 in the game prior to that two-game stretch. In the last three games, Robinson is averaging 18.6 points per game. Robinson is a deep ball shooter who can go cold at a moment’s notice, so it is important to note that he has shot over .500 from deep in each of his last two contests.
He will need to either be on fire again or take the volume to get to this number tonight, but he will no doubt be leaned on with Herro struggling to be a consistent second or third option. This is pure recent form play, as there is no inherent value on the over itself, in fact, the value lies with the under. There should be no doubt that Robinson will get the minutes and shots to hit this number, he will just need to acid going cold. Tap Robinson and the over at BetMGM, but keep it to a one unit play.
Pick: Duncan Robinson over 13.5 (-120)
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.