Top NBA Betting Picks for Friday, April 30
The playoffs are just weeks away, so let’s hope that Giannis Antetokounmpo bounces back quickly. The star power forward sprained his ankle against the Rockets last night, and the team hasn’t released much information about his status for tonight.
Here are the top NBA betting plays for Friday, April 30, provided by BettingPros experts James Bisson, Raju Byfield, and Isaiah Sirois (Main game odds courtesy BettingPros Consensus; lock and prop odds sites may vary):
Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>
Betting Lock of the Day
Sirois: Spurs +4.5 (-110 at FD Sportsbook)
My model’s lock projecting tool is currently 4-0-1, and it’s predicting an easy has the Spurs cover tonight. Why? First, the efficiency stats favor Boston by less than a point, well below this spread. Second, the Spurs have been fantastic on the road — they are 20-8-1 ATS when away from San Antonio, the best away ATS record in the NBA. Third, these teams have relatively equivalent active personnel, per FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR ratings; Kemba Walker’s continued absence seriously limits Boston’s team WAR.
Top Game Prop of the Day
Sirois: Bucks First Half Over 54.5 (-102 at FD Sportsbook)
The market is low on Milwaukee’s offense because Giannis sprained his ankle last night, but I’m buying this over anyway. The Bucks score the most points per first half (60.1), and though the Bulls allow the 14th-fewest (56), that figure is still well above this total. More importantly, the Bucks remain a strong first-half team without Giannis — they have averaged 58.2 points per first half when he sits. They went over this total in six of that nine-game sample. Don’t let juice scare you — this is a remarkably low-set line that offers a boatload of value, especially if Giannis somehow plays tonight.
Top Player Prop of the Day
Sirois: Jayson Tatum Under 26.5 Points (-116 at FD Sportsbook)
Tatum has been remarkably inconsistent recently. Through his last seven games, he has exclusively gone for more than 34 or less than 16. I’m expecting another down game out of him tonight, and he should stay under this total. He averages just 25.8 points per game, a nose below it, and the Spurs surrender the fewest points per game to opposing power forwards (17.5), where Tatum spends 32% of his minutes. While he does spend more time at small forward, the Spurs have been respectable against that position, too, as they give up the 15th-fewest points to it (21.3). Tatum recorded exactly 25 points in his last matchup with the Spurs, and I suspect he’ll post a similar number tonight, which will keep him below this total.
Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>
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