Top NBA Betting Picks for Friday, February 12
On a relatively quiet five-game slate, a 36-year-old Carmelo Anthony destroyed the Philadelphia 76ers in the fourth quarter of yesterday’s nightcap. We may not see something like that tonight, so should you want to get some skin in the game tonight, our experts will break down tonight’s slate and offer their favorite picks.
Here are the top NBA betting plays for Friday, February 12, provided by BettingPros experts James Bisson, Raju Byfield, and Isaiah Sirois (Main game odds courtesy BettingPros Consensus; lock and prop odds sites may vary):
Betting Locks of the Day
Bisson: Pelicans +3 (-110 at FD Sportsbook)
Don’t let that Dallas three-game winning streak fool you: the Mavericks were fortunate to pull out those victories, and they didn’t even cover in any of them (when’s the last time THAT happened?) The Pelicans have major advantages in rebounding and three-point shooting over a Dallas team that is still very much driven by how Luca Doncic performs. I’ll take the Pelicans’ depth and rebounding prowess over a Mavs team that has been playing with fire for a while now.
Sirois: Pelicans +3 (-110 at FD Sportsbook)
The Pelicans outperform the Mavericks in points per game (112.5 to 111.5). They outrank them in offensive efficiency (eighth to 16th). They even outrank them in defensive efficiency (24th to 27th), although neither squad has been great defensively. Yet the Pelicans are getting three points here just because they’re on the road. I fully expect New Orleans to contend for a win here, and my efficiency-based model favors them by 1.6 points.
Top Team Props of the Day
Bisson: Nuggets Over 117.5 (-104 at FD Sportsbook)
Give full credit to the Oklahoma City Thunder for being mostly competitive despite having only eight or nine available players for the past several games. That stretch of competitiveness will likely come to an end Friday night in the thin air of Denver, with the Nuggets well-positioned to stomp on their short-handed opponents. We could see the home team break the 130-point barrier here.
Sirois: Pelicans First Quarter +0.5 (-104 at FD Sportsbook)
I have often targeted New Orleans’ first-quarter lines, and today will be no exception. They score the fourth-most points per first quarter (30.4) and allow the fifth-fewest (26.9). Meanwhile, the Mavericks score only the 14th-most points per first quarter (28.4) and allow the 16th-fewest (27.8). You can get New Orleans as half-point underdogs despite these favorable trends, and if they’re going to challenge the Mavs tonight, they’ll need to get out to a hot start.
Top Player Props of the Day
Bisson: Jonas Valanciunas Over 11.5 Rebounds (-114 at FD Sportsbook)
This player prop comes right down to how many minutes Valanciunas plays. JV owns a sensational 22.2-percent rebound rate on the season, sixth-best in the NBA. With a 32.3-percent defensive rebound rate that also ranks sixth, most of the Lakers’ missed shots will be his to own. Valanciunas is averaging 29 minutes in three games since returning from COVID-19 purgatory – and that’s all he’ll need in this one to surpass his rebound prop.
Sirois: Kawhi Leonard Over 36.5 Points and Rebounds (-106 at FD Sportsbook)
Leonard dropped 37 points and rebounds against the Bulls earlier in the year, and that was with Paul George in the lineup. Leonard only nabbed two boards in the game as George grabbed seven of them. Since George won’t play tonight, Leonard will have to pick up the slack. The Clippers star has averaged 37.7 points and rebounds per game in the three games that George has missed, and he should go over this total again tonight.
Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>
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