Top NBA Betting Picks for Friday, September 25th
The NBA playoffs have picked up, and it’s been quite the show in both Conference Finals. Thursday gave us an exciting game between the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers that came down to the wire once again, with the Lakers winning to extend the series to 3-1.
Tonight, the Boston Celtics look to dig themselves out of a 3-1 hole versus the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Here are my top NBA betting plays for September 25th, 2020. You can also check out our daily NBA consensus game odds here.
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Bam Adebayo Over 32.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-106)
- Adebayo averaged 21.5 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 4.5 assists in the ECF
- Adebayo has double-doubled in three-straight games
- Adebayo has double-doubled in nine-of-13 postseason games
- Adebayo has gone over 32.5 PRA in 10-of-13 postseason games
Bam Adebayo has been the most dominant player on the Heat, and there’s plenty to choose from. He’s scored 20 points in three-straight games and double-doubled in all three. He’s a force down low, and the Celtics have rotated three different big men, Enes Kanter, Daniel Theis, and Robert Williams, to try and slow him down, none able to do so.
He’s averaged 21.5 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 4.5 assists in the ECF through four games. Adebayo’s averaged a double-double in every round thus far. He failed to average a 20-10 double-double through either of the first two rounds but is in the ECF. He’s playing some of his best basketball of the season, and it may. be because of the mismatch, but he’s taking full advantage.
Adebayo played his third 40-minute game of the postseason in Game 4. He’s averaged 21.3 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 7.3 assists in the three games of 40 or minutes. Two have come against the Celtics, and he’s recorded 19.0 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 6.5 assists per game. He can do it all, and in the four games, he’s only dipped below four assists in one game and 10 rebounds in another.
In the three games this playoffs that Miami has had the chance to clinch, Adebayo has averaged 17.6 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 5.3 assists in 37.3 minutes per game, including a 44-minute overtime performance. Chances are, he will double-double again and post at least 30 points, rebounds, and assists in 35 minutes of a clinching Game 5.
Heat ML (+124)
I was rolling with the Celtics before Game 4, but I’m switching sides after the Heat’s Game 4 win. This series looks all but over, and after watching Boston struggle to put a full 48-minute game together, Miami looks poised for their first NBA Finals since 2014. Miami has dominated the interior with Adebayo and balanced Boston out with the three-point shooting of Jae Crowder, Goran Dragic, and Tyler Herro.
The three of them have all done their part to step up and play a significant role in the Heat’s success. They have gone 11-2 SU and ATS in the postseason. Miami is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with Boston and the Eastern Conference Finals overall. The Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Conference Finals games.
In Game 4, the Celtics outshot the Heat percentage-wise from the field (48-43), three (35-27), outrebounded them (46-40), and recorded more assists (28-20) but managed to lose mainly because the Heat forced 19 turnovers compared to committing eight.
In Boston’s lone win, they did the same thing, but only totaled 14 turnovers to Miami’s 13. Boston turned the ball over 20 times in Game 2, and in Game 1, they were outshot by Miami from three and inside the arc. Miami has outplayed Boston through four games, and it’s hard to imagine them winning three-straight versus this red hot Heat team.
I’m finally going to fold and say the Miami Heat are going to the NBA Finals, and it only took me a 3-1 lead in the ECF and 13 games overall to say so.
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Vaughn Dalzell is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Vaughn, check out his archive or follow him @VaughnDalzell.