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Top NBA Betting Picks for Monday, January 18

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We have a full day of basketball action this Martin Luther King Day Jr., and if you’re looking to get some skin in the game, our experts are here with today’s picks.

Here are the top NBA betting plays for Monday, January 18, provided by BettingPros experts Raju Byfield, Isaiah Sirois, Vaughn Dalzell (Main game odds courtesy BettingPros Consensus; lock and prop odds sites may vary):

Check out our daily NBA consensus game odds here >>

Betting Locks of the Day

Bisson: Lakers -8.5 (-110 at FD Sportsbook)

Sportsbooks continue to give the Warriors far too much credit. This is a .500 team at best, as they have one superstar and a gaggle of decent-to-not-that-great options. Also, if you hadn’t noticed, the Lakers have looked positively dominant of late. They’ve rolled to five straight wins (the past four coming by double digits). The gulf between these teams is much wider than 8 1/2 points, even if one of LeBron James or Anthony Davis wind up sitting out.

Sirois: Pistons +6 (-106 at FD Sportsbook)

The Pistons dismembered the Heat by 20 points on Saturday. So why on Earth is Miami favored again? Sure, there’s a chance that they’ll get Tyler Herro back, but both Jimmy Butler and Avery Bradley will remain sidelined. Unfortunately, not even Herro can give the Heat the boost they need to cover this spread against the Pistons. Detroit hasn’t done much well, but they outrank Miami in defensive efficiency, and they’re allowing fewer points per game to their opponents. The differences between the two teams’ average points per game (-0.9 MIA) and points allowed per game (-0.8 DET) point to value on the Pistons here, as does my efficiency-based model, which favors the Pistons by almost a full point.

Best Team Prop of the Day

Bisson: Grizzlies Under 106.5 (-110 at FD Sportsbook)

The absence of big man Jonas Valanciunas is going to cause all sorts of problems for the Grizzlies, who have come to rely on his low-post offense. The Grizzlies have been truly awful from three-point territory this season, as they rank second-last in the NBA at 32.7 percent. The Suns play at a snail’s pace, which will further inhibit Memphis’s offensive potential – and I don’t see them crossing the 100-point threshold in this one.

Sirois: Milwaukee Bucks First Quarter -0.5 (-114 at FD Sportsbook)

The Bucks are two-point favorites against the Nets today in Brooklyn’s second game with James Harden and Kevin Durant on the court. Kyrie Irving is “close” to returning, too, but I don’t think he’ll be back tonight. Meanwhile, the Bucks score the fourth-most first-quarter points per game (31) and allow the second-fewest (24.9). As a result, I expect them to start out with a lead over the Nets.

Best Player Prop of the Day

Bisson: Luka Doncic Under 30.5 Points (-116 at FD Sportsbook)

Doncic has been out of this world in January, averaging 30.9 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 11.1 assists for the month. But Monday marks his first back-to-back of the season – and it comes against a host Toronto team that has started tightening things up on defense. Doncic averaged just 23.1 points on zero days’ rest last year – more than five points below his season average. I can’t see him putting up more than 30 in Toronto.

Sirois: Jerami Grant Over 22.5 Points (-122 at FD Sportsbook)

Grant went for 24 points against the Heat on Saturday. Miami gives up the fourth-most points per game to opposing small forwards (24.9), and with Blake Griffin back at power forward, Grant should do lots of damage against the Heat again. Grant is averaging 24.8 points per game, too, and he’s hit the over in nine of his 12 games. He missed this total by just one point in two of his three bust games.

View our daily NBA matchups pages here >>

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