Top NBA Betting Picks for Monday, March 1

If you missed the thrilling end to last night’s game between the Hornets and Kings, well, you should go back and watch it. It was truly a bad beat for anyone who bet on the Kings, but at least Hornets bettors got lucky.

Here are the top NBA betting plays for Monday, March 1, provided by BettingPros experts James Bisson, Raju Byfield, and Isaiah Sirois (Main game odds courtesy BettingPros Consensus; lock and prop odds sites may vary):

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Betting Locks of the Day

Bisson: Rockets -1 (-112 at FD Sportsbook)

There are stinkers – and then there’s whatever the Rockets put up in Sunday’s 133-84 evisceration at the hands of the Grizzlies. It might be hard for bettors to climb back on board the bandwagon following a 49-point loss, but there are extenuating circumstances to consider. First, John Wall and Eric Gordon combined to shoot 5-for-26 while missing all 10 of their three-point attempts. That won’t happen again. Houston will also have guard Victor Oladipo back in the lineup after his missed Sunday’s rout due to rest. Look for the Rockets to gain a measure of revenge for last week’s 112-96 loss in Cleveland.

Sirois: Cavaliers +1.5 (-110 at DK Sportsbook)

The Rockets haven’t won a game since Feb. 4, the last game that Christian Wood started for them. With Wood unlikely to return before the All-Star Break, the Rockets should continue to flounder. They are surrendering the most rebounds per game by a 1.3-board margin, and they have allowed a league-high 64.3 rebounds over their last three. That leads the NBA by a 5.6-board margin. The Cavs throttled the Rockets by a 16-point margin last Wednesday because of their dominance off the glass, and I don’t think Houston will win tonight — let alone win by three baskets. My efficiency-based model favors the Cavs by a whopping 3.1-point margin.

Top Team Props of the Day

Bisson: Trail Blazers First Quarter Over 30.5 (-108 at FD Sportsbook)

I’ve used this Portland first-quarter prop before, and am happily returning to it thanks to the Hornets’ recent early-game charity. Charlotte has surrendered a whopping 37.7 first-quarter points per game over its last three, which is a recipe for disaster against a Portland side that averages a league-high 31.4 points in the opening 12 minutes. Also, Charlotte is playing the tail end of a back-to-back, while the Blazers haven’t played since Friday. So hop on board!

Sirois: Rockets Under 107.5 Points (-110 at FD Sportsbook)

The Rockets have cleared this total three of eleven possible times since Christian Wood got hurt. They did so against the Wizards (111), the 76ers (113), and the Raptors (111), all by less than six points. However, all three of those teams play at average or above-average paces; the Cavaliers do not. Over Cleveland’s last three outings, they have allowed their opponents to average only 105.3 points per game, too. Over that span, the Rockets have averaged 97 points per game. While James might be right that they’re due for some positive shooting regression, that won’t be enough for them to clear this total.

Top Player Props of the Day

Bisson: Damian Lillard Over 31.5 Points (-116 at FD Sportsbook)

I’m sticking with this game because it presents a golden opportunity for Dame to go off. He’s averaging 30.1 points for the month, and 29.8 points per game during Portland’s four-game losing skid – a stretch during which the Blazers are averaging just 102.5 points per contest. Their team total for Monday’s game? 119.5. And where do you think those extra points are coming from? (Hint: Probably not Robert Covington.) Dame should cruise to a 30+-point night against the weary Hornets.

Sirois: Mitchell Over 3.5 Made Threes (+100 at FD Sportsbook)

Mitchell cashed this over in two previous games against the Pelicans this year, and I’m optimistic that he’ll do it again. The Pelicans surrender the most made threes per game (15.8), including the second-most to shooting guards (4). Sure, Mitchell has averaged only 3.3 made threes per game this year, but he has hit four-plus in 14 of his 32 starts (43.8%). With this prop set in the plus money, I think it’s a strong value play because of the matchup.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

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