Top NBA Betting Picks for Monday, May 3
As the NBAâs regular season winds down, weâve still got loaded slates of betting action â along with lots of data to help us make picks. Our experts have a consensus lean against the spread for two of tonightâs games â keep reading to see which one.
Here are the top NBA betting plays for Monday, May 3, provided by BettingPros experts James Bisson, Raju Byfield, and Isaiah Sirois (Main game odds courtesy BettingPros Consensus; lock and prop odds sites may vary):
Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>
Betting Lock of the Day
Sirois: Knicks +3.5 (-114 at FD Sportsbook)
My NBA betting model has gone 5-0-1 when predicting ATS locks, and it sees two tonight (check out my Twitter for the second one later tonight). The model loves the Knicks here because the efficiency stats donât agree with where this spread has been set. Its efficiency-based spread actually favors New York by a two-point margin. Second, the Knicks have impressed on the road this season, as they have gone 20-11 ATS away from home. Thatâs good for the NBAâs second-best such record. Two things that Knicks bettors should know before committing to this game? One, theyâre on the wrong end of a back-to-back. However, they have gone 8-4 ATS when playing without rest, the NBAâs second-best such record. Two, Nerlens Noel is questionable, so New York could be pressed for depth at center. That said, my model wouldnât favor the Knicks any less if Noel failed to suit up â they should still have more than enough quality players to cover.
Top Game Prop of the Day
Sirois: Knicks First Half +1.5 (-110 at FD Sportsbook)
The Knicks struggled to finish games earlier in the year, but their recent 11-1 tear has seen them clean things up in the second half. That said, they still give up the fewest points per first half (52.1). That points to a decent edge on this line, as Memphis surrenders the 15th-most points per first half (56.1) and scores the 12th-fewest (55.7). Of course, New Yorkâs first-half offense also ranks quite low in points per game, but we can blame that on their slow pace â they rank as the NBAâs slowest squad. Memphis doesnât have that excuse, as they play at the sixth-fastest pace. This play makes a strong addition to any single-game parlay for this matchup.
Top Player Prop of the Day
Sirois: Joel Embiid Over 25.5 Points (-112 at FD Sportsbook)
Embiid nearly doubled this total the last time he played the Bulls, as he finished with a whopping 50 points. Sure, that came before the Nikola Vucevic trade, but Vooch isnât a great defender â his defensive RAPTOR rating (+0.4) is actually worse than Wendell Carterâs (+1.0). Vucevic is also questionable for tonightâs action. The primary concern with this play is that the 76ers completely blow out the Bulls and pull their starters too soon (or that they just sit them), especially after yesterdayâs hard-fought overtime win. That said, Iâll play this over anyway, as the total is miles below Embiidâs average points per game (29.7) and his average since the All-Star Break (27.9).
Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>
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