Top NBA Betting Picks for Thursday, February 4
While today’s slate is a bit smaller than yesterday’s, as we’re down to just five games, we’ve got an exciting rematch of last year’s Western Conference Final as the nightcap.
Here are the top NBA betting plays for Thursday, February 4, provided by BettingPros experts James Bisson and Isaiah Sirois (Main game odds courtesy BettingPros Consensus; lock and prop odds sites may vary):
Betting Locks of the Day
Bisson: Lakers -5 (-112 at FD Sportsbook)
So am I the only one who finds it weird that the defending champs are just 4-4 at home and 12-2 on the road? Or that the Nuggets are 7-3 away from Colorado and just 5-5 in friendly confines? Look for both trends to fall by the wayside Thursday night as the Lakers return home following a successful 5-2 homestand. They’ll be eager to re-establish their dominance at Staples Center, and won three of four meetings with Denver last season. L.A. should have little trouble in this one.
Sirois: Nuggets +5 (-110 at FD Sportsbook)
The sportsbooks have done a good job of not overestimating the Lakers this season, but I think they made that mistake today. The Nuggets rank fourth in offensive efficiency, four spots ahead of the Lakers, and they score the third-most points per game. Sure, the Lakers rank first in defensive efficiency, but I don’t expect them to beat Denver by a five-point margin. My efficiency-based model even favors the Nuggets by a 2.3-point margin. As a result, I’m taking them plus the points in tonight’s rematch of last year’s Western Conference Final.
Best Team Props of the Day
Bisson: Jazz and Hawks First Quarter Over 55.5 (-108 at FD Sportsbook)
Look for plenty of early fireworks in Atlanta as the Hawks host the powerhouse Jazz. Atlanta will be wrapping its fourth set of back-to-backs this season; in the first three instances, it saw an average of 60.3 points scored in the first quarter of the second game. That plays right into Utah’s hands, with the Jazz ranked eighth in first-quarter scoring.
Sirois: Nuggets First Quarter +1.5 (-105 at FD Sportsbook)
If the Nuggets are going to cover against the Lakers tonight, they’ll need to start things off on the right foot. Fortunately, they’re tied with the Bucks for the most points per first quarter (31.5). While I’m a bit concerned about Denver’s defense, as they allow the 17th-most points per first quarter (27.8), the Lakers haven’t been great in the first quarter. They score the 12th-most points per first quarter (28.5) and give up the 11th-fewest (27) — that’s good, but it’s not great, especially when compared to Denver. Since the Nuggets are getting the points here, I’m siding with them over the Lakers.
Best Player Props of the Day
Bisson: Draymond Green Over 7.5 Rebounds (+102 at FD Sportsbook)
Like it or lump it, the Warriors are going to need to play Green at center following injuries to James Wiseman and Kevon Looney. And while none of us want to see Green shoot one jumper after another at this point in his career, he’s still a more than capable rebounder, averaging 6.4 boards in his past five games. He’ll likely clear 30-plus minutes with ease given the Warriors’ current frontcourt situation, which should be enough to grind him over his rebound prop.
Sirois: Trae Young Under 26.5 Points (-120 at FD Sportsbook)
Young might be averaging 26.6 points per game, but the Utah Jazz allow the second-fewest points per game to point guards (20.5) and the third-fewest points in general (106.2). Young finished with just four points against the Jazz earlier in the year. He played only 24 minutes in the blowout loss, but even if he stays in the game longer tonight, he’d need 159 minutes to clear this total at the rate he scored (0.17 points per minute) when he last played Utah.
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